Gold and Silver settle 2019

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net December gains of +$50.40 (3.4%) to $1523.10, and +$0.81 (4.8%) to $17.92 respectively. For the year, Gold and Silver saw net gains of +18.9% and +15.3% respectively.


Gold monthly1b

Silver monthly 1b

Summary

Gold: significant gains to conclude the year, with a provisional confirmation of the bull flag.

Silver: a strong end to the year, with a provisional confirmation of multi-month price structure of a bull flag.


The outlook and targets

Soft target for Gold is the Sept' high of the $1566s, and then onward to the 1650/1750 zone. A challenge of the Sept'2011 historic high of $1923.70, is clearly viable by late 2020.

Big target for Silver is the 2016 high of $21.23. Any price action >22.00 would be decisive, and have monstrous bullish implications on a mid/long term basis.
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A couple of miscell' videos...



And...




Good wishes for 2020, and indeed... the decade ahead.

The big bull flag

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net November declines of $42.10 (2.8%) to $1472.70, and $0.96 (5.3%) to $17.11 respectively. The m/t trend remains bullish, with multi-month price structure of a bull flag.


Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: the second net monthly decline of three. Price structure is a bull flag, and would be fully confirmed with a break above the Sept' high of $1566.20. New historic highs look very viable in second half of 2020.

Silver: the second net monthly decline of three. Price structure is a pretty clean bull flag, and will be provisionally confirmed with a break above the Sept' high of $19.75. Big target is the 2016 high of $21.23. Any price action >22.00 in 2020 would be exceptionally bullish for the mid term.
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Related miner implications: If the bull flags do play out in Gold and Silver, the implications for the related mining stocks should be clear.

Precious metals resume upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net October gains of $41.90 (2.8%) to $1540.80, and $1.07 (6.3%) to $18.07 respectively. The m/t trend remains bullish, as Gold $1600s and Silver $20/21s are still within range before year end.


Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: A very significant net monthly gain, with multi-month price structure of a bull flag. New multi-year highs (>1566) aren't a stretch before year end. A cooler USD would certainly help. The fact QE4 has begun will also help. New historic highs are very much on the menu in 2020.

Silver: A powerful net monthly gain, with multi-month price structure of a bull flag. Big target is key price threshold of $21s, with the 2016 high of $21.23. Eventual price action >22s will have far grander implications.

... and if Gold and Silver continue to broadly climb into/across 2020, the implications for the related mining stocks should be obvious.
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Gold : Silver ratio

The Gold:Silver ratio stands at 83.84. Broader cooling to the 67/66s is arguably a pretty conservative target for 2020.

Very mixed month

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw powerful net September declines of $56.50 (3.7%) to $1472.90, and $1.34 (7.3%) to $17.00 respectively. The m/t trend remains bullish, as Gold $1800s and Silver $21s are still within range before year end.


Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: seeing a new cycle high of $1566.22, but settling in the $1472s. Monthly price momentum has levelled out, but remains strongly positive. Only bearish if the breakout zone of 1400/1370s is traded and held under.

Silver: a new cycle high of $19.75, but settling at $17.00. Monthly price momentum remains moderately positive. Still broadly choppy. Things only turn decisively m/t bullish with the >22s.


Gold-Silver ratio

Whilst the ratio ticked back upward in September, the June high of 94.06 looks secure. I'm expecting a renewed decline to the 67/66s, as Silver can be expected to play catchup to Gold.

Precious metals powering upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw powerful net August gains of $91.60 (6.4%) to $1529.40, and $1.94 (11.8%) to $18.34 respectively. The m/t trend is bullish, as Gold $1800s and Silver $21s are within range before year end.


Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: a fourth consecutive net monthly gain, the highest monthly settlement since March 2013. Next major resistance is the 1790/1800 zone. New historic highs (>$1923.70) look out of range until early 2020... unless the Fed initiate QE4, which looks unlikely until at least spring 2020.

Silver: a third consecutive net monthly gain, the highest monthly settlement since Sept'2016. Soft target is key price threshold of the $21s, with the 2016 high of $21.23. Any price action >22s would offer fast upside to psy'30.


Its notable that Silver is playing catch-up to Gold, with the Gold:Silver ratio having fallen from the 92s to 83s.

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Gold/Silver implications for related mining stocks: As we've seen since June, the related mining stocks are broadly soaring. Some are already above their respective 2016 highs, whilst GDX is still a little below.

If you believe Gold is going to break new historic highs... whether before year end, or a far more viable 2020/21, the implications for the related mining stocks should be clear.

Gold decisively breaks out

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw powerful net June gains of $102.60 (7.8%) to $1413.70, and $0.77 (5.3%) to $15.34 respectively. The breakout in Gold is decisive, and offers soft target of psy'1500.


Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold has seen a decisive breakout, printing the $1442s, and settling in the $1413s.

Silver was clearly helped via price action in gold, although broadly, is still flat lining. Things only turn interesting with the $21s.

Both metals were helped via a cooler USD, swinging from the DXY 97s to the 95s.
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The related mining stocks are naturally reacting.

A third month of cooling

The precious metals of Gold and Silver both cooled for a third consecutive month, with net April declines of -$12.80 (1.0%) to $1285.70, and -$0.13 (0.8%) to $14.98 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

A third consecutive net monthly decline for the precious metals of gold and silver.

The weakness from the Jan' high is arguably largely due to two factors. First, the broadly strong USD. Second, the recovery in confidence with the capital markets, helped by an increasingly dovish fed.

I do anticipate eventual rate cuts - which would be inherently bullish gold/silver, but I don't see such cuts until after the QT program has concluded end Sept'.

The more cautious gold/silver bulls will wait to chase with Gold >$1400s and Silver >$21s.

Mixed month for the metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net February declines of -$9.10 (0.7%) to $1316.0, and -$0.44 (2.7%) to $15.63 respectively.


Gold monthly1b

Silver monthly1b

Summary

Gold: the February intra high of $1349.80, was the highest level since April 2018. Price momentum is back to positive for the first time since May 2018. Things will turn decisively (and wildly) bullish >1400.

Silver: despite settling sig' lower for the month, macd (blue bar histogram) cycle has turned positive for the first time since Jan'2018. Broadly... Silver is just churning.

Gold climbs for a fourth month

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net January gains of +$43.90 (3.4%) to $1325.20, and +$0.53 (3.4%) to $16.07 respectively. The outlook into the spring is bullish.


Gold monthly1b

Silver monthly1b

Summary

Gold: a fourth consecutive net monthly gain. MACD (blue bar histogram) is set to turn positive at the Feb'1st open, which would be the first time since May 2018. There is a great deal of price cluster resistance in the 1360/70s. Things turn decisive >1400.

Silver: a second consecutive net monthly gain. MACD (blue bar histogram) is set to turn positive at the Feb'1st open. Soft target is the 2018 high of $17.36. Things turn decisive above the 2016 high of $21.23.
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As ever... implications for the related gold/silver mining stocks.