Bearish November

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net November declines of -$7.40 (1.5%) to $1776.50, and -$1.13 (4.7%) to $22.82 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b 

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: printing $1879.50, but cooling back into end month, settling in the $1776s. Price momentum is flat-lining, remaining on the moderately low side. The November candle doesn't offer a short/mid term floor. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1784. For bullish confidence, gold bugs need to see a monthly settlement >$1850, which looks feasible in December.

Silver: printing $25.49, but cooling back to $22.82 Momentum ticked lower for a sixth consecutive month, and is on the moderately negative side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $24.94, which silver settled below. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above $25.50.

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Gold and Silver rebound

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net October gains of +$26.90 (1.5%) to $1783.90, and +$1.90 (8.6%) to $23.95 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b 

Silver, monthly1b

 

 

Summary

Gold: printing $1815.50, but cooling back into end month, settling in the $1783s. Price momentum ticked lower, and hasn't been this negative since early 2014. The October candle doesn't offer a short/mid term floor. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1791. For bullish confidence, gold bugs need to see a monthly settlement >$1850.

Silver: printing $24.92, if cooling back to $23.95 Momentum ticked lower for a fifth month, and is on the moderately negative side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.35, which silver settled below. Price action has been a chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above $26.00.

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Rough September

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September declines of -$61.10 (3.4%) to $1757.00, and -$1.96 (8.2%) to $22.05 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing $1836.90, but cooling back into end month, settling in the $1757s. Price momentum ticked lower, and hasn't been this negative since early 2014. The September candle doesn't offer a short/mid term floor. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1802. For bullish confidence, gold bugs need to see a monthly settlement >$1850.

Silver: A fourth consecutive net monthly decline. Momentum ticked lower for a fourth month, and is on the moderately negative side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.60, which silver settled decisively below. Price action has been a m/t chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above psy' $30.00.

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Mixed month for Gold & Silver

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August changes of +$0.90 (0.05%) to $1818.10, and -$1.54 (6.0%) to $24.01 respectively. Gold is surprisingly fairing better than Silver

Gold, monthly1b 

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: Gold printed $1675.90, but recovered into end month, settling in the $1818s. Price momentum ticked lower, and is negative for a seventh month. The August candle is very spiky, and offers a short/mid term floor from the $1675s. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1805.06. For bullish confidence, gold bugs need to see a monthly settlement >$1850.

Silver: A third consecutive net monthly decline. Momentum ticked lower for a third month, and has turned fractionally negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.65, which silver settled decisively below. Price action has been a m/t chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the mid/long term silver bulls, with a break AND hold above psy' $30.00.
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The gold silver ratio stands at 75.74. Cyclically low - much like 2011, and the setup leans to gold outperforming silver into 2022.

The Gold to Bitcoin ratio stands at 25.86. On any basis, this remains truly bizarre, as it takes almost two pounds of gold to buy a single Bitcoin. Its at least partly a case of the millenials having near zero interest in physical assets.

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Mixed month

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July changes of +$45.60 (2.6%) to $1817.20, and -$0.65 (2.5%) to $25.55 respectively. Gold remains m/t bearish, whilst silver is borderline.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: Gold printed $1837.50, but cooled into end month, settling in the $1817s. Price momentum ticked lower, and is negative for a sixth month. For now, there is no clear sign we have a mid term floor from the $1673s. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1811.24. For bullish confidence, we need to see a monthly settlement >$1850.

Silver: A second consecutive net monthly decline. Momentum ticked lower for a second month, and is fractionally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.62, which silver settled just below. The situation is 'borderline'. Things turn decisive with a break AND hold above psy' $30.00.
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The Gold/Silver ratio stands at 71.13. Cyclically low, and it could be argued that gold will outperform silver... at least in the short term. My mid/long term view remains unchanged, with natural target of the 32s. Again, that doesn't mean gold will be net lower, just that silver could be expected to outperform gold.

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Gold/Silver catch a bounce

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net April gains of +$52.10 (3.0%) to $1767.70, and +$1.34 (5.5%) to $25.87 respectively. Gold remains m/t bearish, whilst silver is borderline.

 
Gold, monthly1b 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: Gold printed $1798.40, but cooled into end month, settling in the $1767s. Price momentum continued to tick lower, and is negative for a third month. For now, there is no clear sign we have a mid term floor from the $1673s. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1847.83.

Silver: A significant net monthly gain of +5.5%. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a third month, but remains moderately positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.27, which silver did manage to settle above. The situation is somewhat 'borderline'. Things turn interesting with a break AND hold above psy' $30.00.

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The trio of copper, gold, and silver 'broadly' trade together across the years. Copper remains indirectly supportive to the notion that Silver will eventually catch up, and reach next major resistance of the 35/37 zone.

Gold/Silver still broadly falling

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net March declines of -$13.20 (0.8%) to $1715.60, and -$1.91 (7.2%) to $24.53 respectively. Gold remains m/t bearish, whilst silver is borderline.

 
Gold, monthly1b 

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

 

Summary

Gold: Gold printed $1673.30, the lowest since June 2020. Price momentum ticked lower, and is negative for a second month. There is simply zero sign of a short or mid term floor. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1851.11.

Silver: A second consecutive net monthly decline, printing a low of $23.74. Monthly momentum ticked lower, but remains moderately positive. With the monthly 10MA at $24.55, silver settled 2cents below this rather key MA. The situation is 'borderline'. Copper remains indirectly supportive to the notion that Silver will eventually push to next major resistance of the 35/37 zone.
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Perhaps the most incredible thing is...

 

 

The Gold:Bitcoin ratio stands at 34.34. Its truly bizarre that a cryptographic string is now worth   34oz of gold. We are indeed so very deep in... the twilight zone.

Mixed start for gold and silver

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net January changes of -$44.80 (2.4%) to $1850.30, and +$0.50 (1.9%) to $26.91 respectively. The mid term trend in gold and silver remains bullish, with both metals sporting price structure of a multi-month bull flag.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: Gold printed $1962.50, but cooled back to settle the month $1850.30, just fractionally below the monthly 10MA. For now, price structure is still a valid bull flag. The July 2020 break above psy' $2K offers a grander target of the 2400/500 zone, which appears realistic as early as late summer.

Silver: A second consecutive net monthly gain, with a January high of $28.10. Soft target is the Aug'2020 high of $29.92. Any price action >psy'30 would be decisive, and offer a fast run to the 35/37 zone, which appears realistic as early as April/May.
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The Gold-Silver ratio stands at 68.75. Grand target are the 32s, which looks feasible before end 2021.

Gold and Silver bull flags

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net December gains of +$114.20 (6.4%) to $1895.10, and +$3.82 (16.9%) to $26.41 respectively. Gold was net higher for the year by +24.4%, with Silver +47.4%. The mid term trend in gold and silver is bullish, with both metals sporting price structure of a multi-month bull flag.

Gold, monthly3

Silver, monthly3

Summary

Gold: The December gain fully negated the November washout. The year end settlement back above the monthly 10MA ($1825) is a distinct positive. The July break above giant psy'2K offers a grander target of the 2400/500 zone, which appears realistic as early as late spring/mid 2021.

Silver: The December gain negates much of the decline since September. Old resistance of the 21/20s, has acted as new core support. M/t bullish, with next target of 35/37, which appears realistic as early as April/May 2021.
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With silver having broken above the decisive $22s this past summer, the bold will now be leaning toward Silver, which should outperform gold into and across 2021. 

The Gold:Silver ratio stands at 71.75.

 

Big ratio target are the 32s, which really isn't that bold by end 2021. Again, this doesn't mean gold will be net lower, merely that silver will likely outperform... typically by a factor of two. Indeed, if you believe Gold $3K, then its arguable that Silver could be expected to be close to $50.

Finally, gold and the dollar...

Ongoing weakness in the USD remains an inherent upward pressure on gold and silver. I would note the importance of the DXY 88s. Any price action in the 87s would merit alarm bells, and would likely see gold and silver accelerate upward.