Saturday, 1 February 2025

Gold nearing $3000

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net January gains of +$194.00 (7.3%) to $2835.00, and +$3.02 (10.3%) to $32.26 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 


Silver, monthly1b

 


Summary

Gold: printing a new historic high of $2862.90, if cooling back to settle in the $2835s. Price momentum ticked back upward, and remains on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2555, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish. 

Giant psy' $3K is clearly viable within February, if more realistic in March. Lower bond yields and a weaker dollar would help, but aren't a necessity.
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Silver: printing $32.92, but cooling back to settle at $32.26. Momentum is flat-lining on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $30.16, which was settled back above, as the s/t trend is back to bullish
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Relative to 2011 - when Gold $1923 and Silver $49s, gold is still outperforming silver. Even the bold will continue to favour gold, which would better capture a geo-political 'fear bid'. 
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 87.87, and remains historically high. I'd accept that on a very long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution.
Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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With Bitcoin recently printing a new historic high of $109340, the gold-Bitcoin ratio broke a new historic high, settling January at 36.12. Its a curious thought to realise that it takes a little more than 36x 1oz gold coins to purchase a crypto coin, the latter of which has an intrinsic value of $0.00
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Wednesday, 1 January 2025

A second monthly decline

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net December declines of -$40.00 (1.5%) to $2611.00, and -$1.87 (6.0%) to $29.24 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 


Silver, monthly1b

 


Summary

Gold: printing the $2761s, if cooling back to settle in the $2641s. Higher bond yields nor a stronger dollar helped. Price momentum ticked lower for a second month, but remains on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2495, which was settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish.
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Silver: printing $33.33, but cooling back to settle at $29.24. Momentum ticked lower for a second month downward, if remaining on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $29.43, which was settled below, as the m/t bullish trend has been broken. 

The problem will be if the equity market sees any cooling in early 2025. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar continues to strengthen, or if bond yields increase.
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Relative to 2011 - when Gold $1923 and Silver $49s, gold is still outperforming silver. Even the bold will continue to favour gold, which would better capture a geo-political 'fear bid'. 
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 90.32, and remains historically high. I'd accept that on a very long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution.
Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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With Bitcoin recently printing a new historic high of $108369, the gold-Bitcoin ratio remains on the very high side, currently 35.36. Its a curious thought to realise that it takes a little more than 35x 1oz gold coins to purchase a digital crypto coin, the latter of which has an intrinsic value of $0.00
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