The black doom candle did warn of today!

Once again the black candle of doom was correct in warning of a top in the cycle, both GLD, SLV, and the miners all suffered today - even though the market was showing broad strength for much of the day.

So much for all that hysteria that the Gold Bug maniacs were touting across the web last Friday.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Nothing has changed...if sp'1100 is hit in the coming 1-3 month, that equates to gold $1200... Silver $20. The weekly and monthly cycles still support such an outlook.

Monthly Cycle Update - Metals seeing a bounce

The Gold bugs have been suffering from a mild case of hysteria after Gold jumped almost $60 in Friday trading. Even though Gold managed to close largely flat today, the larger down trends are very much intact.


GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly

Summary

First, lets consider Gold. Friday was indeed the biggest jump in Gold in over 3 years (I think). With GLD closing below the 2008 channel in May, we have ALREADY had a warning of significant downside. I would guess last Friday was just a brief trading anomaly.

Only with a break above 165/170 can I get bullish on Gold.

Downside target remains somewhere in the $1400/1200 range, later this summer.
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As for Silver, the metal remains considerably weaker than Gold. Only with a break above 33/35 can I get bullish on Silver.

Downside target for Silver remains 22/20, possibly as low as $17.50 - if a major deflationary wave is not proactively stopped by the central banks.
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I remain long term bullish on both Gold and Silver, yet we are still due a number of months to consolidate/reset the larger cycles. Arguably, any further declines should be merely seen as a bonus buying opportunity for the physical - certainly rather than 'paper silver/gold'.

Good wishes

Gold finally catches the 'flight to safety' bid

The 12 week decline from 1730 to 1480 for Gold abruptly came to an end today, with a severe ramp of $59 - almost 4%. Once again Silver was weaker, although even Silver still had reasonable gains of 2.5%


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

With the main equity indexes getting whacked over 2% lower, Gold (and the miners) were a standout today. The old 'flight to safety' issue finally appears to have arisen again. Yet a large part of today's big Gold move was surely technical, with a short-stop cascade to the upside. Considering the weekly and monthly cycles, I'm still not bullish on either Silver or Gold until considerably lower levels of $1200 and $20 respectively.

An update on the monthly cycle, will be issued this weekend.