Metals end on another down note

With the jobs data coming in better than expected, bond yields jumped, the USD soared, and that put renewed downward pressure back onto the precious metals. Gold and Silver both closed significantly lower, falling 2.2% and 4.3% respectively. Near term trend looks weak.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Multiple downside pressures continue on the precious metals, the continued strength in the US Dollar is no doubt a primary catalyst.
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With the weekly/monthly trends still suggesting much deeper lows to come, those looking for some kind of multi-month cyclical low, probably have a very long time yet to wait.

Broad trend remains lower

The recent few days of upside in the precious metals, hsa done nothing to negate the broader weekly/monthly down trends. Baring a break back above the April snap levels - GLD 145, SLV, 25s, the metals are still looking exceptionally weak.


GLD, weekly2, rainbow

SLV, weekly2, rainbow

Summary

There continues to be a lot of chatter out there - not least in the Gold bug community, that 'the low is in'. Really? Weren't there a lot of calls that the low was in back in March and April?

Neither Gold or Silver are close to breaking above the important snap levels of April. Even if the metals managed to claw that high, that would still not break what is an extremely powerful down trend - as seen even better on the monthly charts.

The primary down trends do unquestionably continue, and the next targets remain GLD 110/100, with SLV 15/12.

Long term 'best bear case' is somewhere in the GLD 90s, with SLV 12/10, although those levels might not be hit until 2015.

Gold gains again, but silver lags

With the US markets beginning Q3 in a somewhat bullish mood, it was no surprise to see some follow through to the upside for the metals. Gold closed +$20, but Silver actually closed fractionally lower. Bigger weekly/monthly trends remain...dire.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Indeed, it was notable that Silver - usually a 2x mover relative to Gold, failed entirely to hold opening gains. The lagging silver is probably just a reminder that the underlying trend remains to the downside.