A second week of gains

Whilst the broader US equity market saw some significant weakness, there was further strength in the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.6% and 4.4% respectively. Price structure remains a large bear flag, and there remains high probability of another major wave lower.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

Price structure remains a large multi-week bear flag.

With the FOMC next Wednesday, I am seeking renewed weakness, with a break of the flag... next downside target is spot gold of $1100/1080.. which is still viable before year end.

Regardless of the rest of the year... the broader trend remains bearish into mid 2015.

Weekly gains, but very bearish outlook

The precious metals managed rather significant gains this week. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 2.1% and 5.3% respectively. However, price structure is yet another multi week bear flag... another wash out into year end looks highly probable.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... with the US dollar at five year highs, and set for much higher levels (not least if the ECB start a QE-pomo program), the metals look highly vulnerable.
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Holding to broader downside targets...

Gold $1000, if not the 900/875 zone in second half of 2015.
Silver 12/10
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If those targets are correct, the mining stocks will remain very subdued, regardless of how strong the broader equity market is.

Overnight declines, but strong daily gains

It was no surprise to see significant overnight declines - not least via the Swiss 'no' vote, but the Monday gains were a surprise. Gold and Silver settled with strong gains of 4.0% and 6.4% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, within what remains a broader down trend.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

It was the biggest net daily gain for the precious metals of the year (I believe), but even more significant.. when considering the overnight declines (Gold hit $1141).. this was the biggest 24hr swing in a very considerable time (at least spring 2011, when the bubble burst).

However, even a brief review of the daily cycles will show that the metals have seen some pretty wild moves since early November.

Despite today's powerful gains... I hold to the original broader downside targets.