Breaking the downward trend from 2011

The last two days of gains have resulted in a provisional break of the downward trend that stretches back almost a full five years. Gold and Silver saw powerful net daily gains of 4.0% and 3.1% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a retrace, but the mid/long term trends are finally turning bullish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*I'll post the monthly charts tomorrow.
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Suffice to add, a powerfully bullish day for the precious metals.

Reasons for the ramp?

1. USD weakness
2. Fear-bid, as US/world capital markets remain broadly upset
3. Technical, as we have a clear multi-year break... leading to renewed interest.
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*I will strongly consider going long GLD on the next pull back... that might take 4-7 days to complete.

Next big target for Gold is the $1300 threshold.

Powerful net weekly gains

With the USD seeing very significant sustained weakness for the majority of the week, the precious metals continued to climb for a third consecutive week. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of a distinctly powerful 4.9% and 5.1% respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Clearly, very powerful gains... but across the last few years we've seen the same sort of sporadic multi-week up waves.. only to end in breaking a new multi-year low.

Gold bugs are not going to have real clarity for at least another few months, until we see at least a couple of higher highs.. AND higher lows... the broader outlook remains bearish.

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*clearly, with such powerful gains, the related mining stocks are seeing some clear upside breaks. For the moment though, whilst the broader market looks highly vulnerable to the sp'1600s this spring, I am not chasing the metals/miners higher.

Significant net monthly gains

With significant upset across world capital markets, the precious metals attracted some degree of a 'fear bid'. Gold and Silver saw net monthly gains of $55.90 (5.3%) @ $1116.40, and $0.42 (3.0%) @ $14.24 respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside, but the notion that a multi-year floor is now in, still seems flawed.


Gold, monthly2

Silver, monthly2

Summary

Suffice to add... yes, sig' monthly gains, but broadly.. the downward trend from 2011 is still intact.

There remain severe deflationary pressures for all commodities, not least as the USD is still vulnerable to attaining a monthly close above the DXY 100 threshold this spring.

For now.. the broader trend remains unquestionably bearish.