Continuing to broadly retrace

Despite the weakening USD, the precious metals are continuing a short term retrace of the gains from Dec'2015-Feb'. Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +0.5% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers a little further weakness, before likely powerful mid term upside resumes.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

It could certainly be argued that considering the weakening USD, the precious metals are actually under-performing lately.

However, it should have been clear at the start of the year, that the precious metals were catching a powerful 'fear bid'.. as world capital markets were increasingly upset for a great many varied reasons.

Considering the powerful breakout seen across Jan/Feb', it would seem very reasonable to expect once this moderate retrace is complete - within weeks, if not days, the metals will resume higher.. and at an accelerated rate.

First key upside for Gold is the $1300 threshold. Things really only get interesting with a monthly close in the $1400s. 
 
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*I am seeking to be long Gold - via GLD, and long the related mining stocks - via GDX, in the near term. 

Mixed month for the metals

It was a mixed month for the precious metals, with Gold and Silver seeing net monthly changes of -$5.10 (0.4%) @ $1234.20, and +$0.54 (3.6%) @ $15.46. Near term outlook threatens brief cooling, but the mid term outlook is bullish into the summer.


Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, Gold and Silver look set to push higher into the summer, not least if the USD continues to remain subdued, as the US Fed' look likely to delay the next rate hike to Q4.

Arguably, the only reason to be broadly bearish again will be if the Dec'2015 lows are taken out. Until then... the default trade is to the long side.
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*If correct, the implications are similarly bullish for the related mining stocks, even if the broader equity market implodes to the sp'1600/1500s.

Metals finally retracing

The precious metals are finally seeing a retrace of the very powerful gains that were built across Dec'2015-Feb'2016. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.9% and -4.0% respectively. Near term outlook threatens at least another 1-2% lower.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, we've seen six weeks of chop - as equities have broadly climbed, but we're now seen a decisive cool down.

This week's net declines are indeed the strongest declines since early December.

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Unless GLD sees a weekly close <112 (equiv' to spot Gold $1170), the broader breakout remains intact.