Rough September

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September declines of -$61.10 (3.4%) to $1757.00, and -$1.96 (8.2%) to $22.05 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing $1836.90, but cooling back into end month, settling in the $1757s. Price momentum ticked lower, and hasn't been this negative since early 2014. The September candle doesn't offer a short/mid term floor. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1802. For bullish confidence, gold bugs need to see a monthly settlement >$1850.

Silver: A fourth consecutive net monthly decline. Momentum ticked lower for a fourth month, and is on the moderately negative side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.60, which silver settled decisively below. Price action has been a m/t chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above psy' $30.00.

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Mixed month for Gold & Silver

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August changes of +$0.90 (0.05%) to $1818.10, and -$1.54 (6.0%) to $24.01 respectively. Gold is surprisingly fairing better than Silver

Gold, monthly1b 

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: Gold printed $1675.90, but recovered into end month, settling in the $1818s. Price momentum ticked lower, and is negative for a seventh month. The August candle is very spiky, and offers a short/mid term floor from the $1675s. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1805.06. For bullish confidence, gold bugs need to see a monthly settlement >$1850.

Silver: A third consecutive net monthly decline. Momentum ticked lower for a third month, and has turned fractionally negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.65, which silver settled decisively below. Price action has been a m/t chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the mid/long term silver bulls, with a break AND hold above psy' $30.00.
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The gold silver ratio stands at 75.74. Cyclically low - much like 2011, and the setup leans to gold outperforming silver into 2022.

The Gold to Bitcoin ratio stands at 25.86. On any basis, this remains truly bizarre, as it takes almost two pounds of gold to buy a single Bitcoin. Its at least partly a case of the millenials having near zero interest in physical assets.

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Mixed month

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July changes of +$45.60 (2.6%) to $1817.20, and -$0.65 (2.5%) to $25.55 respectively. Gold remains m/t bearish, whilst silver is borderline.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: Gold printed $1837.50, but cooled into end month, settling in the $1817s. Price momentum ticked lower, and is negative for a sixth month. For now, there is no clear sign we have a mid term floor from the $1673s. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1811.24. For bullish confidence, we need to see a monthly settlement >$1850.

Silver: A second consecutive net monthly decline. Momentum ticked lower for a second month, and is fractionally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.62, which silver settled just below. The situation is 'borderline'. Things turn decisive with a break AND hold above psy' $30.00.
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The Gold/Silver ratio stands at 71.13. Cyclically low, and it could be argued that gold will outperform silver... at least in the short term. My mid/long term view remains unchanged, with natural target of the 32s. Again, that doesn't mean gold will be net lower, just that silver could be expected to outperform gold.

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