Monthly charts offering a giant bear flag

October comes to a close, with Gold and Silver seeing net monthly changes of -0.3% and +0.8% respectively. In terms of price formation, the big monthly charts are simply offering a giant bear flag, whilst all indicators remain outright bearish into 2014.


Gold, monthly, fib levels

Silver, monthly, fib levels

Summary

Recent price action has been somewhat confusing, but the bigger picture remains very much bearish.

Without getting wrapped up and overly focused on the micro-cycles (including, even the daily), the bigger outlook for the metals is still deflationary in nature.

I'm still looking for Gold 1050/950, with Silver in the low teens, if not briefly 12/10, before the next great multi-year up wave.

Post FOMC minor weakness

Despite the Fed continuing QE at $85bn a month, the precious metals sold lower on the news, with Gold slipping around 1% from the earlier morning highs. By the close, Gold and Silver saw net daily changes of -0.1% and +0.8% respectively.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, it remains bizarre to see the metals so weak, whilst the Fed are throwing ONE TRILLION of new money at the US capital markets each year.
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Mid-term outlook remains unchanged, with downside to GLD 105/95, and SLV 12/10, in 2014/15.

Metals a little weak ahead of the FOMC

The precious metals were somewhat weak across the entire trading day, with Gold and Silver closing -0.6% and unchanged respectively. Mid-term trend remains weak, but if the FOMC can inspire the metals to jump 2% tomorrow, then there is opportunity of significant upside into early 2014.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

It was a bit of a quiet day in the metals. Gold was weak, whilst Silver managed to actually close exactly flat.

Tomorrow is the FOMC, and even though the announcement is almost certainly 'no change'...I have to think the metals are primed for a very significant move.

Best guess...a late Wednesday surge, based on the notion that QE won't be reduced until spring 2014 at the earliest.

The weekly charts for the metals look bullish in the immediate term..although the monthly charts are still VERY bearish. So...short term bullish...mid term bearish across 2014/2015.
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Regardless..tomorrow should be pretty exciting in the afternoon, with some very dynamic price action.