Awaiting a Sunday night surprise

The precious metals ended the week with a major smack down. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.8% and -5.1% respectively. Near term outlook are for new multi-year lows... with broader weakness into mid 2015.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Aside from the Friday declines, which were indeed VERY destructive, and a clear reminder of the broader underlying weakness.. there is something rather interesting ahead for this Sunday.

The Swiss are set to vote on increasing their gold holdings. The thing is, the planned 1500 ton purchase program is across 5 years, and is really not that much in the grand picture.. I simply don't think it matters that much to the broader gold market.

There is (not surprisingly) a lot of talk in the gold bug community about how a 'YES' vote outcome would help herald a massive new rally in Gold is imminent, but I just don't see it as particularly important.


Sunday night surprise?

Considering the break of the bear flag today (see GLD/Gold on any daily chart)... best guess is that metals will see further decline early next week. It would not be at all surprising to see a $50/75 decline in the Sunday night futures. Next 'soft target' is the $1090/80 zone, and that could be hit as early as next week.

--
Holding to core downside targets...

Gold $1000/900
Silver $12/10

Copper will be useful as an indirect guide to when the precious metals (and even oil) have floored.

Copper monthly, monthly

A strong net monthly decline of -6.3% to $2.86. Copper looks set to floor somewhere in the $2.30/20s... in Q1 of 2015....

Another weekly gain

The precious metals saw some dynamic swings across the week. Gold and Silver both saw net weekly gains of 0.9%. Near term outlook is mixed... and the broader trend remains unquestionably still very bearish... to Gold $1000.. if not the low 900s in 2015.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*the metals opened significantly higher this morning, but with the USD holding strong gains - at the highest level since summer 2010, the metals cooled.
--

Little to add... a second weekly gain for Silver.. whilst Gold managed a third consecutive gain.

Overall though, this weeks gains do little to negate the broader downward trend.

Wild swings in the metals

The precious metals saw some dynamic price action, with a snap lower in the morning.. then an equal snap higher... only to see further weakness in the afternoon. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*first, an extra chart, highlighting the intraday swings...

GLD, 5min

There was talk across the morning about some Swiss vote... but regardless of that issue, the price action was certainly dynamic.

Overall price structure on Gold is a large bear flag.

I see nothing to suggest that $1000 won't be hit.. although with barely 6 trading weeks of the year left... $1000 looks unlikely until Jan/Feb.