A mixed 2022

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net December gains of +$66.30 (3.8%) to $1826.20, and +$2.26 (10.4%) to $24.04 respectively. For the year, Gold and Silver saw net yearly changes of -$2.40 (0.1%) and +$0.69 (2.9%) respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: ending the year on a positive note, settling in the $1826s. Price momentum ticked higher for a second month, if remaining on the moderately low side. The December candle offers increased confidence of a short term floor from the November $1618s. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1792, which was settled above.

Silver: a fourth consecutive net monthly gain, printing $24.51, and settling at $24.04. The December candle leans s/t bullish. Momentum ticked higher for a fourth consecutive month, and is prone to turning positive in January. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.23, which silver settled decisively above. The silver bulls should be seeking a monthly settlement above $25.50. 

The problem... especially for silver, will be if the main market is broadly lower across Q1. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes broadly upward. 
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The gold to silver ratio stands at 75.97, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold in an inflationary environment.

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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 9.08, the lowest since autumn 2020. It sure would be interesting to see parity in this pair!

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Considering the broadly stronger USD - a net 2022 gain of +768bps to DXY 103.27, Gold fared better in 2022 than it might at first seem. Both can rise together, especially in times of geo-political crisis.
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A strong November

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net November gains of +$119.20 (7.3%) to $1759.90, and +$2.66 (13.9%) to $21.78 respectively. Silver settled above the monthly 10MA, whilst gold appears poised to follow.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing the $1618s - the lowest since April 2020, if recovering to settle in the $1759s. Price momentum ticked upward, and offers a provisional cyclical floor/turn. I would note the monthly 10MA at psy' $1800, which was settled below, as the m/t trend is still bearish.

There is increasing background bullish chatter, but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until a decisive monthly settlement >psy' $2K. An eventual push >$2100 would offer grander target of the 2400/2500 zone. Clearly, a weaker dollar would help.
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Silver: climbing for a third consecutive month. Momentum ticked upward for a third month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.26, which silver settled marginally above. The positive equity market and the weaker dollar certainly helped.
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The gold to silver ratio stands at 80.80. The recent high is notably far lower than March/April, as silver is outperforming gold.
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The gold to bitcoin ratio continues to narrow, standing at 9.71, the lowest since late 2020, as gold is outperforming Bitcoin.
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Gold falls for a seventh month

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net October changes of -$31.30 (1.9%) to $1640.70, and +$1.16 (6.5%) to $19.04 respectively. Gold is being pressured by the broadly strong dollar, whilst Silver is fairing better, if still m/t bearish.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: a seventh consecutive net monthly decline, printing $1621.10 - the lowest since April 2020, if recovering to settle in the $1640s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1803, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend is bearish. Gold is holding a decreasing amount of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine, and China/Taiwan geo-political concerns. 

There is increasing background bullish chatter, but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that will be very difficult until the dollar is sustainably cooling.

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Silver: printed a new multi-year low of $21.31, but cooled to settle at $19.12. Momentum ticked subtly back upward. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.33, which silver settled below for a sixth month. Things only turn interesting with a break AND hold above $22.00, but that looks difficult for the remainder of this year, with the m/t bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.

 

Gold and the King of FIAT land...

 

The USD remains on track for next target of the DXY 120s. If that occurs, its difficult not to see Gold cool to next support of the $1370s, levels last seen in June 2019. 
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