Thursday 1 February 2024

Shaky start

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net January declines of -$4.40 (0.2%) to $2067.40, and -$0.92 (3.8%) to $23.17 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b


Silver, monthly1b



Gold: began the year on a mixed note, printing a low of $2004, but recovering to settle at $2067. Price momentum is flat-lining on the moderately positive side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1994, which was settled decisively above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having printed $2152 in December, I see the door wide open to next resistance of the 2400/2500 zone, which is an area a fair few others are also seeking.

Silver: printing a low of $22.04, if recovering to settle at $23.17. The January candle leans net bearish into February. Momentum ticked lower, if remaining fractionally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.99, which silver settled beneath. 

The s/t bulls should be seeking a monthly settlement above $26.00. The problem will be if the main market sees any kind of cooling/retrace. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb. Right now, there is zero reason to expect such problems.

More broadly, silver bulls should remain seeking a decisive monthly close >$30.00. That doesn't look viable any earlier than end April. Any talk of new historic highs >$50.00 has to be seen as 'crazy talk', until a settlement >$30.00.

The gold to silver ratio stands at 89.23, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis. 


The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 20.58, the highest since spring 2022, as crypto has outperformed gold since the main market floored in Oct'2022. 

Gold wasn't helped in January, by the stronger dollar.

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