Thursday 29 February 2024

Gold holding $2K

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net February declines of -$12.70 (0.6%) to $2054.70, and -$0.28 (1.2%) to $22.89 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b


Silver, monthly1b



Gold: printing a low of $1996.40, but recovering to settle at $2054. A fourth consecutive monthly close above giant psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked a little lower, if still on the moderately positive side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1999, which was settled decisively above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having printed $2152 in December, I see the door still open to next resistance of the 2400/2500 zone, which is an area a fair few others are also seeking.

Silver: printing a low of $21.98, if recovering to settle at $22.89. The February candle leans net bearish into March. Momentum ticked lower, turning fractionally negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.76, which silver settled beneath. 

The s/t bulls should be seeking a monthly settlement above $26.00. The problem will be if the main market sees any kind of cooling/retrace. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb.

More broadly, silver bulls should remain seeking a decisive monthly close >$30.00. That doesn't look viable any earlier than June. Any talk of new historic highs >$50.00 has to be seen as 'crazy talk', until a settlement >$30.00. 



The gold to silver ratio stands at 89.78, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis.  


The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 29.84, the highest since Dec'2021, as crypto has massively outperformed gold since the equity market floored in Oct'2022.

It could be argued, equity bears should be seeking the ratio to peak in the 34s, as one indirect sign the market is at/near a m/t top. As ever though, ratios are to be treated with a high degree of caution. The gold/bitcoin ratio could continue to increase, but it sure doesn't have to mean gold isn't also climbing. 

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