Wednesday 30 November 2016

A severely bearish November

With US capital markets coming to decide a Trump presidency might actually be a good thing, it was a severely bearish November for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of -$99.20 (7.8%) @ $1173.90, and -$1.31 (7.4%) @ $16.48 respectively. Near/mid outlook is bearish, the only issue is whether the Dec'2015 lows are broken under in early 2017.


Gold, monthly2



Silver, monthly2



Summary

A very bearish month indeed...

key issues...

-Higher USD (capital inflows, amid higher rate expectations)... naturally pressuring gold/silver
-Increased market confidence, as the uncertainty of the election has passed, resulting in Gold/Silver losing more of their inherent fear bid.
-Underlying econ-data points in November has been (arguably) rather good.

Near term outlook offers further significant weakness in December. The bigger issue is whether the Dec'2015 lows will be taken out. Its a very difficult issue to guess, but what can be said is that there is ZERO sign of a floor/turn, from the down wave that began in July.
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Implications for the miners

As ever, weakening metals have very bearish implications for the related mining stocks, even as the broader equity market is powering to new historic highs.