Friday 11 November 2016

Post election collapse

With the election out of the way, equities soared, volatility rapidly cooled, and perhaps most notably.. the precious metals collapsed. Gold and Silver saw severe net weekly declines of -5.9% and -5.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce, but if core support is not held... the Dec'2015 lows will be challenged in 2017.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly



Summary

Last week saw gold and silver negate price structure of a very clear flag.

With the election now passed, the metals have seen a complete reversal.

The USD is not helping, having seen the DXY 99s this week
There was news of a massive 'big money' seller of Gold futures, totalling around $10bn.

The remaining inherent 'fear bid/safety aspect of Gold/Silver has now been immensely reduced.
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Best guess? The outlook remains mid term bearish. If GLD <112 and SLV <14.50.. the Dec' 2015 lows will be taken out next year.

If that occurs, the related mining stocks will be utterly obliterated.

Against that... price structure is offering a multi-month bull flag... but that would only be confirmed if the miners rally around 20% from current levels.. >GDX $26.