Friday, 31 July 2026

Negative monthly momentum

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July changes of +$34.28 (0.9%) to $4042.00, and -$0.95 (1.6%) to $57.56 respectively. 

Gold, monthly1b

 


Silver, monthly1b

 


Summary

Gold: a minor net monthly gain, printing a low of $3959, and recovering to $4042. Momentum weakened for a fifth month, and has turned sustainably negative. A second monthly settlement under the key 10MA. Next support... $3500, and $3K
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Silver: the fourth monthly decline of five, a new cycle low of $54.74, and recovering to $57.56. Momentum weakened for a fifth month. and is due to turn negative as Monday August 3rd. A second monthly settlement under the key 10MA. Next support... psy' $50, and then the 40/35 zone.
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The concerns this summer, and into the fall should be...

1. If equities see a washout between now and the midterms. Even if the SPX sees just a basic correction of 10%, its almost impossible not to see gold/silver/miners get dragged down to some extent. 

2. If the dollar strengthens.

3. If the Fed raise rates in Sept' and/or Dec' 

4. If the US 10yr yield climbs to around 5.00% 

Right now... I'm guessing we see all four of those things before year end.  

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