Gold, 20yr, historic
Gold has broken the 10MA, and whilst the price is still pretty close to the peak, the trend is certainly a little weaker. The various indicators are bearish, at least in the near 3-6 month term, so the notion of $1400, even $1200 is very valid. A pull back to the 38.2 fib; would be easily acceptable, and that still doesn't mess up the long term up trend. I can only imagine the gold bugs fierce complaints across the various message boards if $1200 hits, and not realising that the primary trend is still intact.
Silver, 20yr, historic
Silver has of course already suffered a severe decline since last years peak of $49. Having already retraced to the 50% fib', that leaves the 61.8 around the $21.50 level. Only a break under $20 would seriously violate the long term trend.
Summary
Gold remains much stronger than Silver, and certainly also much more stable. Even a huge move lower in the metals this summer - or for even a longer period, would not violate the currently relentless upward trend.
Best guess - considering the wider macro-economic situation (I hold to a somewhat deflationary view - at least for another year or so), Gold to $1200, and Silver to $20
Despite the current weakness, relative to the equity indexes, both gold and silver have performed spectacularly across the last decade. You sure can't eat metals, but you sure can purchase a lot more with them - relative to just about everything else.
As many might agree...stack...and keep stacking.
