Saturday 30 June 2012

Weekend update - Monthly Metal Cycles

The precious metals remained largely unchanged in June, although the broader trend remains downward. With the FOMC deciding to only extend QE-twist, rather than full scale QE, the metals remain weak.

On a multi-year scale, both Gold and Silver arguably have giant bull flags.


GLD, 2yr, monthly



SLV, 2yr, monthly



Summary

As is usually the case, Silver was weaker than Gold, and showed a 1% fall, verses a minor 2% gain for Gold. In the bigger picture, these moves rate as mere noise. The main trend remains downward.

I could only get bullish on Gold with a move over $1650, that is around $100 higher than current levels.
Similarly, I can only be bullish Silver with a move over $31/32. As things are, I hold to my moderate deflationary targets of $1300 and $22 for Gold/Silver within the next 3-5 months.

Special note..
Silver could easily break $22..and - as many others also note, the next level would be the rather bizarre $17.50 level, which would probably equate to Gold around $1200/1100.

In the long term of course, so long as the central bankers remain 'on the loose', and are able to hit the QE button as and when they wish, physical metals remain one of the ultimate long term buys.