Friday 31 August 2012

Metals - Breakout

Even though nothing actually changed in direct policy/intervention, as a result of today's speech by the Bernanke, the metals ramped, and closed well above key weekly cycle resistance.

Without doubt, we have a breakout for both Gold and Silver.


GLD, weekly



SLV, weekly


Summary

Its quite amazing what mere words can do. The Bernanke has indeed inspired the metals to successful breakouts today. Both Gold and Silver are pricing in a much anticipated QE3. The key questions are how much QE is coming, and how much is already factored into the metal prices? Both are impossible to know of course, QE3 itself could easily be some months away.

From a MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle perspective, we're pretty high on the cycle, but there is absolutely no sign of levelling out, never mind an actual turn lower. With the breakout - and strong weekly closing in actual price, it'd be natural to expect further price rises.

So, we have a provisional breakout for the metals, the gold bugs should now look for confirmation a week from today, and also more importantly, at the end of September.

Upside targets
Gold, the high of February, GLD @ 174, some $100 higher
Silver, the high of February, SLV @ 36.44, some $5.50 higher
-
A retrace back to the weekly 10MAs would probably act as very good initial support for Gold and Silver next week, and across all of September.