Metals end a three month ramp

With October coming to a close, we now have clarification that the multi-month ramp since the May lows has likely concluded. Gold lost $50 across October, with Silver lower by $2.20.


GLD, monthly3, count

SLV, monthly,

Summary

So, Gold lost around $50 on the month (3%), with Silver down $2.21 (6.6%), those declines are 'interesting' but we still closed above the monthly 10MA, which is now the first line of soft support.

For the deflationary doomer bears who expect much lower metal prices, we're going to need to see November close back under the 10MA. Even then, it might merely be a brief move lower, before a further surge higher.

With currency concerns across the western world, the metals remain very tricky commodities to predict.

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*special note on the GLD chart. The 123/ABC count as indicated on the monthly chart should be considered a 'vague' scenario. It would require a very significant deflationary wave into spring 2013 to have any chance of occurring.





A Santa metal rally?

In recent years, the last few months of the year have often been a gloriously bullish time for the metals. Yet, the action in October is suggestive of...trouble.  As ever, it will be fascinating to see how this all pans out.