2013: Gold -$472, Silver -$10.97

With the US capital markets climbing across the year, the precious metals saw some very strong declines. Every bounce was indeed..just a bounce, and even today, there is no sign of a multi-month floor. Primary targets remain..Gold $1050/950, with Silver $12/10


Gold, monthly, fib levels

Silver, monthly, fib levels

Summary

2012 close: Gold $1674, Silver $30.34

2013 close: Gold $1202  Silver $19.37

net declines:$472 (-28%), $10.97 (-36%)
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It was not until April - almost a full year from the May 2011 highs, that the decade long up trend for Gold and Silver was finally broken. Indeed, as I noted at the time, April was to be seen..and counted as month'1 down.

The notion that the big falls in April was a washout move was laughable - as I said at the time, and indeed, the Gold/Silver bugs - who tried to buy the low, all got repeatedly nailed. All those little bounces on the daily/weekly cycles counted for nothing, once the decade up trend was broken.
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The precious metal ETFs

The following outlooks remain a 'best guess'

GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly

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The 2014 outlook

The short term is usually tricky to fathom, but the bigger outlook remains pretty clear in my view.

Mr Market will probably want to rattle out the people with trading stops at the huge $1000 psy threshold. I'd be very surprised if we don't see a final washout, lasting from just a few days, to perhaps even a couple of months trading <$1000.

Whether that key multi-year low occurs in 2014 or 2015..is difficult to guess. Regardless, the bigger outlook into 2018/20..is for Gold >2k..if not far..far higher. Silver..to break >$50..and then proceed to $125/150.

First things first though....we need a clear multi-month floor...and that will probably take some months to form.

Metals ending the year weak

Whilst the broader US market closed flat, there was some notable weakness in the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -1.4% and -2.1% respectively. The broad monthly trend remains starkly bearish, and the huge $1000 level for Gold is likely to be briefly broken.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

There is little to add.

For the gold/silver bugs out there, Gold and Silver remain two commodities that remain within a multi-year down trend, and there is still no real sign of the declines ending.
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mid term targets: GLD 105/95, SLV 12/10

Holding the June lows

The precious metals are managing to just hold the June lows. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 1.0% and 3.5% respectively. Whilst the primary trend remains bearish, there is remains a moderate opportunity of a 3-6 month rally across the first half of 2014.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

My broader outlook for the metals remains very bearish until at least mid 2015.

The metals have seen the biggest yearly declines in a few decades (I believe), and regardless of exactly where we close 2013, it has been a year of relentless disappointment for the Gold/Silver bug community.


Best guess?

Frankly, this is an extremely marginal situation to call. It won't take much of a move lower to take out the June lows, which would then likely spiral the metals lower again, all the way to GLD 110 and SLV 17 - which was the original H/S target from over a month ago.
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Mid-term targets remain GLD 105/95, with SLV 12/10.

June lows are being tested

A pretty rough week for the precious metals, as the Fed tapered QE, with interest in the metals continuing to soften. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -2.9% and -1.7% respectively. So far the June lows are just holding, but..look set to be broken in early 2014.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

The broader down trend from the 2011 peak...continues.

There is simply no justification for anyone yet getting bullish on the metals..or indeed the mining sector stocks.

Mid-term targets remain: GLD 105/95, with SLV 12/10

Metals significantly lower

Whilst the equity market consolidated the recent gains, the precious metals remain very weak, and closed significantly lower. Gold and Silver saw net daily declines of -2.4% and -3.0% respectively. The June lows look set to be taken out within the next few weeks..or even days.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3

Summary

The metals remain exceptionally weak, and the June lows - which many of the gold bugs thought were the low... are indeed NOT going to be lows of the current multi-year down wave.

near term targets: GLD 110, SLV 17

mid term targets: GLD 105/95, SLV 12/10....probably in 2014
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Frankly, it still bemuses me how anyone could possibly consider the metals to have floored, whilst the monthly charts are still deeply bearish.

QE-taper upsets the metals

The metals briefly spiked on news of QE-taper, but the price action was never that strong. Gold and Silver closed lower by -0.9% and -0.3% respectively. Near and mid-term outlooks are both very weak, and the summer lows look set to be taken out in early 2014.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

With monthly QE amounts lowered..the metals are again being sold lower.

Mid-term targets remain GLD 105/95, SLV 12/10.

Still stuck under old broken support

The metals remain very much stuck below the old broken support. The longer that Gold and Silver remain at/below current levels, will greatly increase the probability that the summer lows will be broken in early 2014. Gold and Silver closed with net daily declines of -0.8% and -0.3% respectively.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3, H/S formation

Summary

Baring a few daily closes >GLD 122 and SLV 20, the metals are looking just as weak as they've looked for the past two years.

Near term targets: GLD 110, SLV 17

Mid term: 105/95, SLV 12/10.

Choppy week for the metals

A very mixed week for the metals, with a bounce that got stuck at the old broken support. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of 0.7% and 1.0 % respectively. Near term outlook remains at least moderately bearish, and there is likely further downside into year end and early 2014.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

From a purely technical perspective, the failure to re-take the old broken support this week is just another failure for the metals.. a string of broken hopes since the big snap lower in May 2011.

There is little reason to believe the June lows won't be taken out at some point. Whether that is in the remainder of this year, January..or not until late 2014..doesn't really matter.

The primary trend remains very weak, and lower levels are most certainly likely.

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Mid term targets remain : GLD 105/95.. SLV 12/10.

Another dire day for Gold and Silver

Having been stuck just under old broken support for two days, the metals were indeed vulnerable, and today's major drop once again confirms the broader weakness. Gold and Silver closed with significant declines of -2.1% and -3.8% respectively.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3

Summary

Having failed to break above the old support - now resistance, it was no surprise to see a renewed wave lower.

Downside targets remain: GLD 110, SLV 17...within the next month or two.

Metals looking very vulnerable

With the main US market somewhat weak, the precious metals were similarly weak. Gold and Silver settled -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. Baring a few daily closes above the old broken support, metals look vulnerable to further strong downside into year end/early 2014.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, metals look stuck under old broken support.

Near term targets remain: GLD 110, SLV 17

Metals testing old broken support

The precious metals jumped at the open, and remained stuck around the old broken support - from mid November, across the day. Gold and Silver settled with net gains of 1.75% and 2.77% respectively. There is high likelihood the metals will fail..and rollover from here.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3

Summary

Baring another 2 or 3 positive daily closes - for BOTH metals, the mid-term weakness is still in effect.

Primary downside target remains GLD 110, and SLV 17.
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The notion that we have put in a multi-month low seems..highly improbable. Far more likely, this is just another dumb bounce...with much lower levels into year end/early January.

Gains within a broader down trend

The precious metals start another week with some gains, but the broader trend remains unquestionably still to the downside. Gold and Silver closed the day with gains of 1.0% and 1.9% respectively. Baring a few daily closes for SLV >20, the mid term outlook remains weak.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily'3 - H/S formation

Summary

Suffice to say...another bounce..as we're seen a few hundred over the last two years.

The gains do nothing to change the bigger weekly/monthly down trends.

General downside into year end still seems likely.

Only with a break above SLV 20.00, and GLD 122.50, would there be a possibility that a multi-week low has been put in. All things considered, that seems unlikely.

The broader down trend continues

It was another rough week for the metals, with many significant intraday price swings. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -1.8% and -2.4% respectively. Near term downside remains SLV 17, which is around 10% lower, and would equate to GLD 110.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

So, another bad week for the gold bugs, and the broader mid-term trend remains to the downside.

As based on the H/S formation, I'm still looking for SLV to slip to $17..with GLD 110. That might occur before end..but regardless, the current trend is clearly not up!
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Mid-term targets remain GLD 105/95, with SLV 12/10.

Right now, I'd only consider going long the metals - along with the miners, after the next intermediate pull back in equities, which itself seems unlikely until Q3 of 2014.

More swings for the metals

The precious metals saw another set of intraday swings, opening sharply lower, but battling back across the morning. Gold and Silver closed weak, -1.4% and -1.7% respectively. Near term outlook remains bearish, with downside of around 7-10%.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily'3

Summary

Suffice to say, these intraday swings are pretty wild, but the broader trend remains clearly to the downside.

The H/S target for SLV remains $17, which should equate to GLD 110.

I realise those are pretty bold downside targets, and they arguably look viable before year end.

Metals battle strongly higher

Whilst the main equity market saw continued weakness, the precious metals were the strongest area of the market. Gold and Silver built very significant gains across the day, settling higher by 1.8% and 3.3% respectively. The broader outlook remains bearish though.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3 - H/S formation

Summary

So..another big bounce for the metals, but we've seen this over and over again since the grand top in spring 2011.

Today's move is impressive, but really, the bigger trend remains to the downside.

Baring a few daily closes in the $20s, SLV primary downside target remains 17.00, with GLD 110, both targets being viable before the end of this year.

Rough start to the month

The last month of the year started badly, with the precious metals opening weak..and continuing to weaken across the day. Gold and Silver closed down a very significant -2.6% and -4.1% respectively. The bigger monthly trend is offering further downside of 5-7% in the immediate term.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3- H/S

Summary

The bounce last Friday was indeed just a brief respite from what is a strong multi-month down wave.

Near term targets:  SLV 17, GLD, 110, that is another $70 or so lower for spot Gold
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Mid term targets remain SLV 12/10..with GLD 105/95.

A lousy month for the metals

Whilst US equities rallied for another month, commodities remained weak, and this was especially the case for the precious metals. Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of a very significant -5.5% and -8.75% respectively. The outlook for the remainder of the year is still bearish.


GLD, monthly

SLV, monthly

Summary

Regardless of whether you agree with the wave count on the above charts, the primary trend remains starkly to the downside.

Considering the November close, December will very likely see further falls.

Near-term downside remains..

SLV 17, which might equate to GLD 110 - that is another $100 lower for spot Gold prices.
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Mid-term targets: SLV 12/10..with GLD 105/95..sometime in 2014/early 2015

Underlying weakness

The bigger weekly and monthly bearish trends continue to assert themselves, with the precious metals still generally weak. Gold and Silver closed the pre-holiday session -0.3% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook is very bearish, with significant downside (5/10%) to come.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3, H/S

Summary

Another weak day..and the down trend continues.

Near term target remains SLV 17...perhaps even 15..if there is mild panic into end year.
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*I am short SLV, seeking my next exit in the 18.60/50s.

Minor chop to start the week

The metals were very weak in overnight Sunday action, opened lower..but there really wasn't any power on the downside. Gold and Silver battled back across the day, settling +0.5% and 0.9% respectively. The broader trend remains to the downside though.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3

Summary

With both Gold and Silver having taken out the rising neckline - as part of a H/S formation, today's minor gain has to be seen as just that...minor noise.
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The bigger mid-term trend remains very weak.

*the fact that the Gold miners - see ETF of GDX, broke the June lows today, was arguably another bearish aspect to the broader outlook for metals.

Yet another bad week for the metals

After a two week bounce in early October, the metals have been on the slide. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -3.6% and -4.4% respectively. The June lows are now easily within reach, and have a high likelihood of being broken before year end.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

So..another rough week for the precious metals...and that makes a general down wave now four weeks in duration. There is no reason why we won't see another week or two to the downside into early December.

Indeed, the real question is how will the metals react when they test the June lows? Considering the price action/structure, I think there is a very high likelihood that the metals will break new lows before year end.

Most bearish case right now..end December: GLD 105, SLV 15.

A more 'conservative' case is for GLD 110, with SLV 17.
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*I am short SLV, from 19.23...seeking my next exit in the mid/low $18s next week.

Minor bounce before the next wave

The metals were very weak across the day, with Gold and Silver closing mixed, -0.15% and +0.57% respectively. The mid term trend remains strongly to the downside, and further significant declines are expected into year end.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily3

Summary

So..a bit of a pause day for the metals, and we saw a fair bit of price chop. There looks to be a viable chance of brief upside early Friday..before the primary down trend..resumes.

Near term primary targets are GLD 110    and SLV 17

Mid-term targets are GLD 105/95, and SLV 12/10...and those might not be hit until much later next year.
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*I will be looking to pick up another SLV-short position, early Friday, somewhere in the 19.35/45 zone..if possible.

Downside exit would be the low 17s..within the next week or two.
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Another rough day for the metals

The broader down trend continues to assert itself, with the precious metals opening weak, and seeing significant weakness across the day. Gold and Silver closed -2.3% and -2.5% respectively. The June lows look likely to be taken out within the next few weeks.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily'3

Summary

Little to add....down trend continues.

The June lows look likely to be taken out, which will really be a bust to the mining stocks..and GDX.
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Primary target remains Gold 1050/950...with Silver 12/10.

*the near term H/S formation on Silver - which also applies to Gold, looks good for further significant downside.

SLV 17....and then 15...before year end..very viable.

Starting the week on a downer

Whilst the equity indexes broke to new highs, the precious metals opened moderately weak, and saw declines build across the day. Gold and Silver closed with rather significant declines of -1.1% and -1.7% respectively. Near term outlook remains very bearish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily'3 - H/S idea

Summary

Holding to all earlier targets.

I favour a H/S formation/theory, and am looking for SLV in the 17s soon...probably before year end.

SLV 15s..might not be viable until April/June 2014.

Regardless of the short term moves..the broader trend is very weak.

Metals are weak for a third week

The metals managed to close above their lows of the week, but still..it was the third week of general weakness, with Gold and Silver seeing net weekly changes of +0.02% and -3.33% respectively. The metals look very vulnerable to further downside in the next week or two.


GLD, weekly'2, rainbow

SLV, weekly'2, rainbow

Summary

A quiet end to the week for the metals.

The mid-term trend remains starkly bearish, and underlying MACD (green bar histogram) looks very weak, with a possible major snap lower in the next week or two.

I continue to believe the June lows will not hold.