Gold, monthly, fib levels
Silver, monthly, fib levels
Summary
2012 close: Gold $1674, Silver $30.34
2013 close: Gold $1202 Silver $19.37
net declines:$472 (-28%), $10.97 (-36%)
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It was not until April - almost a full year from the May 2011 highs, that the decade long up trend for Gold and Silver was finally broken. Indeed, as I noted at the time, April was to be seen..and counted as month'1 down.
The notion that the big falls in April was a washout move was laughable - as I said at the time, and indeed, the Gold/Silver bugs - who tried to buy the low, all got repeatedly nailed. All those little bounces on the daily/weekly cycles counted for nothing, once the decade up trend was broken.
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The precious metal ETFs
The following outlooks remain a 'best guess'
GLD, monthly
SLV, monthly
The 2014 outlook
The short term is usually tricky to fathom, but the bigger outlook remains pretty clear in my view.
Mr Market will probably want to rattle out the people with trading stops at the huge $1000 psy threshold. I'd be very surprised if we don't see a final washout, lasting from just a few days, to perhaps even a couple of months trading <$1000.
Whether that key multi-year low occurs in 2014 or 2015..is difficult to guess. Regardless, the bigger outlook into 2018/20..is for Gold >2k..if not far..far higher. Silver..to break >$50..and then proceed to $125/150.
First things first though....we need a clear multi-month floor...and that will probably take some months to form.
