GLD, daily
SLV, daily
Summary
As expected, after a few days stuck just under the 50 day MA, gold saw a marginally significant fall of over 1% today. It has arguably broken a bear flag, and the next downside target zone is the 158 gap..but possibly a move down as low as the lower declining support of 155/54.
*the weekly charts are clearly presenting a large bull flag - from the Sept' highs, with a 5 wave formation within the flag. We appear to now be starting the final fifth wave lower.
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SLV, monthly, bearish outlook
*chart note. The above is merely one of many scenarios for SLV, and its pointless to guess at this point what the long term target will be. What is clear, is the bull flag - since the Sept' highs.
Whether bullish or bearish about the longer term, if that is a 5 month bull flag..then some serious upside is going to soon occur, after the last 'wash-out' move lower.
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Even the bearish monthly outlook has to acknowledge what is a very clear bull flag, and it points towards SLV in the 38/40 level.
Were SLV to decline to 28/27 across the next 2-3 weeks, a move back to the upper 30s would make for a stunning trade into the late spring/early summer.
*the GLD equivalent for late spring/early summer is around 180/85 - although that is very close to the historic highs. Again, its notable that Silver is still very weak compared to Gold.
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So..bearish near term..but most definitely bullish into mid-2013.
