Thursday 28 February 2013

Metals fall sharply across February

Whilst the equity market pushed to new highs, the precious metals declined for a fifth month. Silver fell 9.5%, whilst Gold declined 5.0%. There is no sign of a turn/floor, and both Gold and Silver look set for further significant declines in March/April


GLD, monthly'1 - bearish outlook



SLV, monthly'1 - bearish outlook


Summary

It has to be said, in retrospect, the declines for the metals really are surprisingly severe. After a few intra-month attempts at a rebound, the metals continue a very steady decline.

Both metals are close to taking out their lows from summer 2012.

On balance, I can not expect last years lows to hold. Significantly lower levels seem likely.

Targets..

SLV 24/23
GLD 140/135

For SLV, a move all the way back to the August 2010 'Bernanke breakout'  - in the high teens now looks feasible..if not 'likely'.

For the Gold/metal bugs, the bearish chart outlooks listed above are nothing less than heresy.

Yet..the trend IS unquestionably lower.

One serious problem the metals are facing - not least as was seen today, is the strength in the US Dollar, which is now testing the USD 82 level. A move to the 88s, or even higher, would put further severe downside pressure onto the metals.