A bad month for the precious metals

With September concluding, the precious metals have seen a significant portion of the gains from July/August negated. Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of -5.0% and -7.9% respectively. Near term price action looks weak, and price formation could simply be a large multi-month bear flag.


Gold, monthly, fib levels

Silver, monthly, fib levels

Summary

Suffice to say..despite the Fed continuing QE at $85bn, the precious metals are simply not benefiting.

The net monthly falls are very significant, and if October closes with declines of any degree, then the June lows look set to be broken..certainly by early spring 2014.

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mid-term targets remain unchanged, with GLD in the 90s, and SLV in the low teens, perhaps 12/10.

A quiet week for the precious metals

After the drama of FOMC week, the precious metals saw very narrow price action. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +0.8% and -0.2% respectively. Weekly charts are offering a renewed wave higher, although the daily charts are offering a rather bearish H/S formation.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

So...a rather quiet week for the precious metals. There were slight gains into the weekend, arguably due to a fear-trade, with a possible temporary US Govt' shutdown - although that still seems rather unlikely.

The daily and weekly charts are somewhat contradictory. Near term daily charts are offering a rather bearish large H/S formation, which would be offering significant downside, even beneath the June lows...this coming Oct/Nov.

Weekly charts are offering the possibility of another multi-week wave higher, and the big $1500 gold level would be a very obvious target (an equivalent Silver target would be around $26).

Regardless of the action in the coming few months, I'm resigned to much lower levels in 2014/15.
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Mid-term targets remain unchanged, with GLD in the 90s, and SLV 12/10.

Metals rally into the close

Whilst equities saw renewed weakness in the late afternoon, the precious metals rallied into the close. After opening declines of around $13 for Gold, Gold and Silver closed with net gains of 0.1% and 0.5% respectively. Near term trend remains somewhat bearishly choppy.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

More than anything, it remains very surprising that despite continued QE - at an annual rate of $1 trillion, the metals are failing to be consistently bid higher.

The FOMC hyper-jump in Gold of $50 is now fading from the minds of even the most ardent gold bugs, and the immediate trend looks somewhat weak.

There remains the chance of a further multi-week wave higher, to test the big $1500, but even if that is hit, the monthly charts will remain generally bearish until at least mid 2014.

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mid-term targets remain the same, with GLD 90s, and SLV 12/10, no later than early 2015.

A turbulent week for the precious metals

The metals saw some very dynamic price action this week. Gold soared $50 on Wednesday, but closed --$37 on Friday. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net changes of +0.2% and -2.1% respectively. The broader weekly/monthly trends remain to the downside.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

It was one of the most dynamic weeks for the metals for some time. With the Fed not cutting QE, the metals soared, but we have seen a severe turn around, and the week closed badly. Even though Gold had net gains on the week, the swing back to the downside can not be dismissed.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) for both Gold and Silver is ticking lower again, and we have a pretty clear rollover now being confirmed.


Broken hopes

For the gold bugs out there, the Friday close must surely be a devastating way to end the week. Everything was looking extremely bullish at the Wednesday close, and with the metals getting smashed into the Friday close, next week is now looking suspect.

No doubt, many of the bugs will blame 'the cartel'..or even JPM, but regardless, the precious metals look weak on the bigger weekly/monthly charts.

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Mid term targets remain unchanged, with GLD 90s, and SLV 12/10.

Metals soar after QE maintained

With the Fed surprising the market with no reduction in QE, equities and commodities soared. Gold and Silver closed with the biggest gains in a very long time, settling +4.2% and +6.3%. Near term outlook looks bullish, but the bigger monthly trends remain to the downside.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

On what was an extremely powerful and bullish close, many might forget or not realise, that the metals actually opened lower, with Gold -$13.

The bullish engulfing candles on the daily charts are extremely bullish, and near term upside looks an easy prediction.

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Despite the gains, broader trend - seen best on the monthly charts, remains to the downside. Metal bulls need 2 or 3 monthly closes in the Gold $1500s before they can get bullish about 2014/15..and beyond.

Regardless...an exciting day in the metals..and that had massive implications for the Gold mining stocks.

A lousy week for the metals

The precious metals saw severe declines this week, with Gold and Silver having net weekly declines of -4.7% and -6.7% respectively - the biggest weekly falls since early June. Near term trend looks relatively dire, and a test of the June lows is viable within the very near term.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*Friday saw further initial declines, but both Gold and Silver found an intra-day floor, and rallied into the close, both closing moderately higher.
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Suffice to say...Gold hit the 38% fib retrace three weeks ago,, and we now have a very clear failure.

First target is the June low of GLD 113, that is another $130 lower for spot Gold.
For Silver, the June low was SLV 17.75, that is almost $4 lower for spot Silver.

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Long term targets for 2014/15 remain GLD 90s..and SLV 12/10.

Metals slammed lower

The precious metals opened sharply lower, and saw consistent weakness across the day. Gold and Silver closed with rather severe declines of -2.9% and -5.6% respectively. With the break of support, the metals look set for at least another day or two to the downside.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The recent week or two of price action has been one of general price consolidation..after very strong gains from the June low.

Today's drop is very large, but there is a considerable way to go, before those June lows are in danger.
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Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle has been warning of trouble for some days, but on any basis, is now very low on the cycle.

Another few days lower..before forming a short-term floor.

Immediate targets: GLD 122,    SLV 20,  that is around 4-5% lower.
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The mid term outlook remains unchanged..with GLD 90s.. and SLV 12/10, but those seem unlikely to hit until at least mid 2014.

Metals slip on reduced war fears

With reduced fears of a US attack on Syria, equities continued higher, and the metals/Oil both saw significant declines. Gold and Silver settled lower by 1.6% and 3.1% respectively. Near term trend is moderately lower, but price structure is offering a bull flag/pennant.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The immediate trend is clearly still to the downside. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for a ninth day (matching the ninth day higher for equities).

Price formation is looking somewhat bullish though, and we do get a break higher..targets remains SLV 25/26..with GLD 140/45.
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Mid/long term targets remain considerably lower, but those will be dropped if the price action into the autumn remains to the upside.

Metals climb into the weekend

With some renewed war-chatter in the early morning, Gold and Silver both rallied into the weekend, with Gold +$19. Across the week, the metals were mixed, with Gold -0.4%, but Silver +1.7%. Near term trend is suggestive that both metals are stuck just below key resistance.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, metals are going to do well on any continued war-talk..or actual military action.
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Metals on the slide

Whilst the main equity market climbed for the third day, the precious metals saw rather significant declines. Gold and Silver closed -1.8% and -1.3% respectively. Near term trend is slightly weak, and Gold is in danger of breaking the broader up channel.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

The precious metals remain in a fierce battle to break away from the June lows.

Yet, there are so many issues in the near term that could cause serious havoc in the precious metals.

-10yr bond yields look set to break >3%
-German elections, with implications for the wider EU
-looming US attack on Syria..'metals as a 'safe haven' trade.
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What is clear, the metals have had a very significant bounce from the June lows, even a 50% retracement would be very natural.

Metals rally on war-talk

The US markets were rattled early Monday on more war-talk, and this gave the metals an extra 'fear trade' boost. Gold and Silver closed with net gains of 1.3% and 3.5% respectively. Near term trend remains clearly bullish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, the Syria situation - which does look likely to end in actual military action, is likely to be a further positive factor for the metals across this month.

There remains an obvious giant gap-fill zone - from the April snap/collapse wave.

A monthly close above the April snap - GLD 150, and SLV 26.50, would be very bullish for the mid-term.