Powerful monthly gains

With a number of political and economic concerns to start the year, the precious metals pushed upward. Gold and Silver saw net monthly gains of $100 (8.5%) @ $1283 (intra high 1307), with Silver +$1.66 (10.6%) @ $17.25 (intra high $18.50). Despite the gains, the metals still look vulnerable to another multi-month wave lower into the summer.


Gold, monthly'2, fibs

Silver, monthly'2, fibs

Summary

The second consecutive monthly gain for the precious metals.. which is notably impressive, considering the relentless USD strength (month'7 UP). Yet.. we've seen these kind of bounce moves before. I find it difficult to believe that $1130 is a multi-year floor for Gold.


Holding to a broader bearish outlook...

The following outlook is based (partly) on the ECM by Armstrong.

GLD, weekly'3

Suffice to add, the above scenario is merely a 'best guess', and will be subject to change, not least if the USD experiences a brief cooling phase this spring.

Post FOMC depression

Precious metals had the worse day in over a month, with downside momentum continuing to build. Gold and Silver settled significantly lower, by -2.1% and -5.7% respectively. Near term outlook is very bearish, with the early Nov' lows set to be taken out by early spring.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say... I believe we have seen some kind of ABC (wave 4?) up from early November... seemingly now complete.

Holding to broader downside targets... as stated endlessly across the last few years.

A viable bearish outlook

Despite the Greeks voting for a more determined group of socialists (or should that be communists?)... the capital markets were calm. The precious metals naturally cooled, with Gold and Silver settling -1.0% and -2.2% respectively. There is a high likelihood a mid term multi-week cycle top is in.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Suffice to say... interesting start to the week. There is plenty of chatter out there about much stronger weakness after the next FOMC announcement this Wed' afternoon.
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The following is a 'best downside case' for the metal bears into the late summer/early autumn.

GLD, weekly'3 - count, with fibs

The scenario is linked to the ECM theory by Armstrong. Mr A' never deals in wave counts (at least that I know of). If a 5 wave count down to Sept/Oct is correct, it is going to be one hell of a buying level... including the miners.

A third week of strong gains

Despite the USD continuing to strengthen, the precious metals managed a third consecutive net weekly gain. Gold and Silver climbed by 1.4% and 3.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, but still... the broader trend remains bearish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

So.. three consecutive weeks of upside... but we're still to break the high from last July.

In the grand scheme of things... this latest up wave is like just that... another bounce... within a broader down trend.

$1130 Gold makes ZERO sense as a key multi-year cyclical low. I hold to the original target of $1000, if not even 900/875 by late 2015.

If correct, it has major implications for the Gold/Silver miners which are higher by around 18% this January, but which could break new multi-year lows by the late spring.

A third day of strong gains

Precious metals continue to climb, which is especially impressive when considering the even stronger US Dollar. Gold and Silver both settled the day higher by a significant 1.4%. Near term outlook is bullish, with (at minimum) another $50 upside for Gold.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

So... the third strong consecutive day to the upside... and Gold is now around $170 higher from the early November low of $1130.
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Personally... I'm still VERY unconvinced that a key multi-year floor is in.

Powerful weekly gains

With capital markets rocked by the SNB decoupling from the Euro, the precious metals caught a strong 'fear bid'. Gold and Silver saw powerful net weekly gains of 4.5% and 7.4% respectively. With the break above the October high, near term outlook is bullish.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

With increasingly upset markets, the metals are catching a strong bid.
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Despite a second net weekly gain, I still can't take the gains seriously. The precious metals have seen many rallies across the last four years.. and all have ended the same.. with renewed weakness.

To me, it makes little sense for $1130 to be a key cycle low. It still seems more probable than not, for the market to wash out the $1000 trading stops... with a capitulation low in the 900/875 zone. The latter still seems viable by late summer/early autumn.

Gold catches a strong fear bid

With the SNB deciding they don't wish to fight against the ECB's next QE program, the capital markets were rocked. Not surprisingly, Gold caught a rather huge 'fear bid', the ETF of GLD saw a net daily gain of 2.5% @ 120.88. With a break above the Oct' high... near term trend remains especially bullish.


GLD, daily

Summary

Suffice to say.. a real day of market turmoil.. with Gold catching a classic 'run for safety/fear' bid.
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Despite the Oct' high being broken over... I'm still seeking renewed weakness into the summer/early autumn.

Strong weekly gains

Whilst the broader capital markets saw something of a mixed week, the precious metals saw broad strength. Gold and Silver had net weekly gains of 2.7% and 4.3% respectively. Despite the gains, the broader trend remains very much to the downside.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add. One up week does not a broader trend break!
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Holding to primary targets of Gold $1000.... if not the 900/875 zone in late summer of this year.

From there.... seeking a key multi-year floor... before a grand ramp to $2500 by 2019/20

Metals catching the fear bid

With the US and especially, the EU capital markets moderately concerned about a GREXIT, the metals caught a classic fear bid. Gold and Silver settled with net daily gains of 1.5% and 2.7% respectively. Despite the gains.. the metals seem likely to break new multi-year lows within the next few months.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

Little to add.... a one day bounce does not breaketh a 3.6 year down trend.  Gold bugs... beware!
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