Powerful monthly gains

With a number of political and economic concerns to start the year, the precious metals pushed upward. Gold and Silver saw net monthly gains of $100 (8.5%) @ $1283 (intra high 1307), with Silver +$1.66 (10.6%) @ $17.25 (intra high $18.50). Despite the gains, the metals still look vulnerable to another multi-month wave lower into the summer.


Gold, monthly'2, fibs

Silver, monthly'2, fibs

Summary

The second consecutive monthly gain for the precious metals.. which is notably impressive, considering the relentless USD strength (month'7 UP). Yet.. we've seen these kind of bounce moves before. I find it difficult to believe that $1130 is a multi-year floor for Gold.


Holding to a broader bearish outlook...

The following outlook is based (partly) on the ECM by Armstrong.

GLD, weekly'3

Suffice to add, the above scenario is merely a 'best guess', and will be subject to change, not least if the USD experiences a brief cooling phase this spring.