October gains for the metals

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw significant net monthly gains of $26.90 (2.4%) @ $1141.40, and $1.08 (7.5%) @ $15.57 respectively. Despite the gains, the broader trend remain bearish, not least as the USD remains on track to eventually break above the key DXY 100 threshold.


Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

I remain holding to the original outlook... with Gold $1000/900.. but it is clearly taking longer than expected.. as the USD has trundled sideways since the spring.
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A continued bearish outlook for Gold and Silver would only be dropped on any sustained price action >$1300 and $20 respectively. Frankly... such upside looks unlikely.. rather than weakness into year end.

Price structure on the weekly charts (not shown) is a large bear flag... and hence.. I remain highly inclined to the broader bearish scenario.

Net weekly declines

With the USD seeing rather strong net weekly gains of around 2.7% in the DXY 97s, the precious metals were pressured lower. Gold and Silver saw net weekly declines of -0.9% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is borderline, and will be highly dependent on the next move in the USD.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Best guess?

I am seeking a bullish breakout in the USD, back above the giant DXY 100 threshold.. and onward to the 120s.

If correct, such dollar strength will put significant downward pressure on the metals (and most other commodities) into next year.

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Further, if the metals do resume lower.. it will drag the related mining stocks lower, regardless of however strong the broader equity market might be.

A second strong week

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw significant net weekly gains for a second week, higher by 1.5% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, not least as the USD appears headed to the DXY 90 threshold.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

In the grander scheme of things.. the last few weeks are somewhat interesting.. but we remain relatively close to recent multi-year lows.

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For me, key bullish breakout thresholds (via monthly chart) are...

GLD: 125
SLV: 20

If we see a few weekly closes above those levels, then the broader bearish outlook will be dropped.

Significant gains for the metals

With the USD cooling into the DXY 94s, the precious metals of Gold and Silver saw further upward pressure, with net weekly gains of 1.7% and 3.8% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish, but price action remains comfortably within the broader bearish trend from 2011.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

No doubt, the cooling USD has helped to pressure most equities and commodities to the upside this past week. USD is threatening further cooling to the DXY 90 threshold, and that might equate to Gold seeing upside of a further 3-5% to around the $1200 threshold.
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For the moment, I can't take any precious metal gains seriously.. at least until Gold is trading >$1350

Mixed week for the metals

The metals ended the week on a very positive note, with Gold and Silver settling higher by 2.1% and 4.5% respectively. Across the week, Gold and Silver settled -0.8% and +0.9% respectively. The mid term outlook is now borderline.. as the USD is starting to threaten renewed cooling to the DXY 90 threshold.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Without question, commodities remain exceptionally.. and broadly weak... and that certainly include the precious metals.

With US jobs data coming in much weaker than expected, we saw the USD sliding (at least initially) by almost a full percent to the DXY 95s. There appears threat of DXY 90.. before the next grand push back above the giant 100 threshold.. and onward to the 120s.

So.. short term bullish... but eventually... the metals will again face the old problem of a stronger USD.
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*I remain having ZERO interest in being long the precious metals.. or their related mining stocks, until there is a clear floor in commodities.