Gold, monthly
Silver, monthly
Summary
August is often a cyclical low for the precious metals.. so its possible we've just seen some natural cooling ahead of a broader ramp into year end and all the way into spring 2017.
The USD is clearly putting some downward pressure on the metals. Whenever the USD is on the rise - mostly due to increased rate hike expectations, the metals almost always get knocked lower.
So, whats my best guess?
Considering the strength in the USD, the metals do look very vulnerable to reversing more of the gains that have been built since the Dec'2015 lows.
Any push into the $1400s for Gold would really turn the outlook powerfully bullish... as the $1500s would then become a given.
Things only turn bearish if Gold trades <$1200.. which is another 8% lower.
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To be clear, I'm leaning bearish, but I have zero interest in trying to short Gold - or the related mining stocks, as long term.. I'm actually hyper-bullish metals/miners. For me.. its the bigger picture that matters.
