Gold is the superior

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net December changes of +$14.60 (0.7%) to $2071.80, and -$1.57 (6.1%) to $24.09 respectively. For the year, Gold and Silver saw net changes of +$245.60 (13.4%) and +$0.05 (0.2%) respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: ending the year on a positive note, printing a new historic high of $2152.30, and settling at $2071.80, the highest ever monthly AND annual settlement. Price momentum ticked upward for a third month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1986, which was settled decisively above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having printed >$2100, I see the door wide open to next resistance of the 2400/2500 zone, which is an area a fair few others are also seeking.
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Silver: Printing $26.34, but cooling back to settle at $24.09. The December candle is messy, offering no clear direction into early 2024. Momentum ticked back lower, if remaining marginally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $24.09, which silver settled precisely on. 

The silver bulls should be seeking a monthly settlement above $26.00. The problem will be if the main market sees any kind of cooling/retrace within Q1. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb. Right now, there is zero sign to expect any such problems.

Silver bulls should remain seeking a decisive monthly close >$30.00. That doesn't look viable any earlier than end Feb'. Any talk of new historic highs >$50.00 has to be seen as 'crazy talk', until a settlement >$30.00.
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Superior gold

I will continue to see gold as the superior, not least as it would better capture a geo-political 'fear bid', as appears a very high threat in summer/fall of 2024. 

I would agree that upside potential - as a percentage, is vastly higher in silver. I'm very open to an eventual push >$50, and to triple digits. For now though, the cautious would arguably favour gold, whilst the bold would have a mixed holding, if leaning toward gold.
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The gold to silver ratio stands at 86.02, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis.

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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 20.45, the highest since spring 2022, as crypto has outperformed gold since the main market floored in Oct'2022.
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Gold was partly helped in 2023, by a weaker USD, which saw a net 2023 decline of -224bps (2.2%) to DXY 101.03. I'd note that the US 10yr yield settled precisely u/c for the year at 3.88%.
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The Dow to gold ratio stands at 18.19. I'd note the Dot com bubble, where it took 41 to 42 one ounce gold coins to purchase the Dow.

However, its a 'quirky' ratio at best, and I'd be very cautious in reading anything from it. The ratio could broadly stay the same for years, whilst equities and gold trade higher, lower, or just flat-line.
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Something I noticed just a few days ago.
Highly recommended. Get a coffee or something.

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Gold settles above $2000

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net November gains of +$62.90 (3.1%) to $2057.20, and +$2.71 (11.8%) to $25.66 respectively. Monthly momentum is increasingly positive.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: printing $2072.70, if cooling to settle in the $2057s - the highest ever monthly settlement. A second monthly close above the key 10MA. The November candle has a floor spike from $1935, and leans distinctly s/t bullish. Price momentum was positive for a ninth month.

Any price action >$2100 would be decisive, and offer a run to 2400/2500, which looks realistic within Q1 of 2024.
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Silver: printing $21.92, but recovering upward to settle at $25.66, back above the key 10MA. The November candle is spiky on the lower side, and leans s/t bullish. Momentum was net positive for a ninth month.

Two key threats to silver... if the equity market sees renewed downside, and dollar strengthening.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid', not least via the middle east, Ukraine/Russia or even China/Taiwan. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.
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The gold to silver ratio stands at 80.17, which remains high, but it can remain that way for years. I'd understand the very long term silver bulls seeking an eventual target of the 32s. That doesn't mean of course that gold will be net lower!

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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 18.35. Despite gold having a positive month, Bitcoin is outperforming.
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Gold reverses powerfully upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net October gains of +$128.20 (6.9%) to $1994.30, and +$0.50 (2.2%) to $22.95 respectively. Monthly momentum remains positive, but the three concerns should be further dollar strengthening, higher bond yields, and a weak equity market.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: printing $2019.00, if cooling to settle in the $1994s - the highest since July. A monthly close back back the key 10MA. The October candle is bullish engulfing, and leans distinctly s/t bullish. Price momentum was positive for a eighth month.
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Silver: printing $20.85, but recovered upward to settle at $22.95. Another monthly close under the key 10MA. The October candle is spiky on the lower side from key price threshold of the $21s. Momentum was net positive for a eighth month.

Key threats to silver... if the equity market sees further downside, and dollar strengthening.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid', not least via the middle east, Ukraine/Russia or even China/Taiwan. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.

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Rough September

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September declines of -$99.80 (5.1%) to $1866.10, and -$2.36 (9.5%) to $22.45 respectively. Monthly momentum remains positive, but the three concerns should be further dollar strengthening, higher bond yields, and a weak equity market.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing $1980.20, but swinging lower to settle in the $1866s - the lowest since March. A monthly close back under the key 10MA.

Price momentum was positive for a sixth month, but is due to turn negative as of Oct'2nd.
Any further upside in the dollar won't help, nor would any further rate hikes.
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Silver: printing $25.22, but swinging lower to settle at $22.45, the lowest monthly close since February. A monthly close back under the key 10MA. Momentum was net positive for a sixth month, but is set to turn negative as of Oct'2nd.

Key threats to silver, will be if the equity market sees further downside, and if the dollar strengthens.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid', not least via Ukraine/Russia or China/Taiwan. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.
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The Bitcoin > Gold ratio stands at 14.40, still half of what it was in 2021.
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The gold > silver ratio stands at 83.12. Historically, this is clearly on the high side.

*as ever... all ratio charts are to be treated with an especially high degree of caution. Its very possible that gold AND silver can fall (or climb) at the same time, with the ratio itself remaining unchanged.

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September's dollar strengthening, back into the DXY 106s, sure didn't help gold.

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A mixed August

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August declines of -$43.30 (2.2%) to $1965.90, and -$0.16 (0.6%) to $24.81 respectively. Monthly momentum remains positive, but the three concerns should be renewed dollar upside, higher bond yields, and a weak equity market.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: cooling to $1913.60, but recovering to settle in the $1965s.

Price momentum was positive for a fifth month. I'd note first major support of the key 10MA has climbed to the $1924s. 

Next upside resistance is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. Any price action >2100, would offer the 2400/2500 zone.

Any renewed upside in the dollar won't help, nor would any further rate hikes. Indeed, considering the ongoing rate hike cycle, gold is performing better than it might seem.
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Silver: printing $22.26, if recovering to settle at $24.81. Momentum was net positive for a sixth month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.65, which silver settled above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar strengthens.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid', not least via Ukraine/Russia or China/Taiwan. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.

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Gold settles above 2K

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July gains of +$79.80 (4.1%) to $2009.20, and +$1.95 (8.5%) to $24.97 respectively. Monthly momentum remains positive, but the two concerns should be renewed dollar upside and higher bond yields.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: cooling to $1908.50, but recovering to settle in the $2009s, the first ever close above giant psy' $2K.

Price momentum was positive for a fifth month. The July candle is bullish engulfing, and leans distinctly bullish into late summer. I'd note first major support of the key 10MA has climbed to the $1891s. 

Next upside resistance is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. Any price action >2100, would offer the 2400/2500 zone.

Any renewed upside in the dollar won't help, nor would any further rate hikes. Indeed, considering the ongoing rate hike cycle, gold is performing better than it might seem.
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Silver: printing $22.72, if recovering to settle at $24.97. The July candle is bullish engulfing, and leans distinctly bullish into late summer. Momentum was net positive for a fifth month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.08, which silver settled above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside, but there is ZERO sign of that (as of July 31st). A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes upward, and there is no sign of that either.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid', not least via Ukraine/Russia or China/Taiwan. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.
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The Gold to silver ratio stands at 80.46. Historically, this remains very high. The ratio could decline, but it sure doesn't mean that both gold AND silver can't both increase in value at the same time. Again, silver clearly has the better potential for upside.

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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 14.54. It remains a bizarre notion that it takes 14oz of gold to purchase one cryptographic string of the Bitcoin variety.
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Gold & Silver cooling

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net June declines of -$52.70 (2.7%) to $1929.40, and -$0.57 (2.4%) to $23.02 respectively. Monthly momentum remains positive, but the two concerns should be renewed dollar upside and higher bond yields.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: cooling to $1900.60, and recovering to settle in the $1929s. Price momentum was positive for a fourth month. The June candle offers a lower high, and a lower low. I'd note first major support of the key 10MA in the $1857s. 

Next upside resistance is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. Any price action >2100, would offer the 2400/2500 zone.

Any renewed upside in the dollar won't help, nor would any further rate hikes.
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Silver: printing $22.14, if recovering to settle at $23.02. Momentum was net positive for a fourth month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $22.49, which silver settled above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes upward.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid'. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.

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A difficult May

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net May declines of -$17.00 (0.8%) to $1982.10, and -$1.64 (6.5%) to $23.59 respectively. Monthly momentum remains positive, but the two concerns should be further dollar upside and higher bond yields.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new multi-month high of the $2085s, if cooling back to settle in the $1982s. Price momentum was positive for a third month. The May candle is spiky on the upper side, we've have a higher high... but a lower low. Next upside resistance is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. Any price action >2100, would offer the 2400/2500 zone.

Any further upside in the dollar won't help, nor would any further rate hikes.
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Silver: printing $26.43, if cooling back to settle at $23.59. Momentum was net positive for a third month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.97, which silver settled above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar continues to re-strengthen.

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid'. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.

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Precious metals broadly climbing

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net April gains of +$12.90 (0.6%) to $1999.10, and +$1.07 (4.4%) to $25.23 respectively. Monthly momentum is increasingly positive, which bodes bullish for May.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new multi-month high of the $2063s, if cooling back to settle in the $1999s. Price momentum was net positive for a second month. The April candle is a little spiky on the upper side, but we do have a higher high and higher low. Next upside resistance is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. Any price action >2100, would offer the 2400/2500 zone.
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Silver: printing $26.24, if cooling back to settle at $25.23. Momentum was net positive for a second month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.63, which silver settled far above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes broadly upward.  

Of the two metals, I favour Gold, especially for a potential geo-political 'fear bid'. I'd accept silver has massively more upside potential than gold, but many have been saying that since the $49s of 2011.
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 79.25, and remains on the high side.
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The gold-bitcoin ratio climbed to 14.68, although this is still half of what it was in 2021.
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A very bullish March

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net March gains of +$149.50 (8.1%) to $1986.20, and +$3.09 (14.6%) to $24.16 respectively. Monthly momentum has turned positive, which bodes bullish for April/Q2.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new multi-month high of the $2014s, if cooling to settle in the $1986s. Price momentum has turned positive. The March candle is arguably bullish engulfing, and leans bullish for April/Q2. Next upside resistance is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. Any price action >2100, would offer the 2400/2500 zone.
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Silver: printing $19.94, but seeing a very powerful upside reversal, and settling at $24.16. Momentum has turned positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.15, which silver settled above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes broadly upward. 
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 82.22, and is clearly on the high side.
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The gold-bitcoin ratio climbed to 14.29, although this is still half of what it was in 2021.
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Metals back on the slide

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net February declines of -$108.60 (5.6%) to $1836.70, and -$2.77 (11.6%) to $21.07 respectively. Monthly momentum has stalled from just under the key zero threshold.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new multi-month high of the $1975s, but swinging powerfully lower to the $1810s, and settling in the $1836s. Price momentum has stalled from just under the key zero threshold. The February candle is arguably bearish engulfing, and leans bearish into the spring. Next support is the monthly 10MA in the $1784s.
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Silver: printing $24.75, but seeing a very powerful downside reversal to $20.50, and settling at $21.07. Momentum has stalled from just below the key zero threshold. I would note the monthly 10MA at $20.90, which silver settled above.

A key threat to silver, will be if the main market sees renewed downside into and across the spring. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes broadly upward. 
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The gold to silver ratio climbed to the 87s in February, as gold is holding up far better than silver.
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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 12.59. I would expect gold to fair better this spring/summer, not least if there is any geo-political upset.
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