Friday 31 May 2024

Silver powering upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net May gains of +$42.90 (1.9%) to $2345.80, and +$3.79 (14.2%) to $30.44 respectively.

Gold, monthly


Silver, monthly



Gold: printing a new historic high of $2454.20. A seventh consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked upward, and is on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2096, which was settled far above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having already reached the 2400/2500 zone, 3K appears realistic this year.

Silver: printing a high of $32.75, the highest since Dec'2012, if cooling back to settle at $30.34. Momentum ticked upward, settling marginally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $24.80, which was settled above. 

The monthly settlement above $30.00 is VERY significant. Next resistance are the $35s, last printed in Oct'2012. Any price action >36.00 would open the door to the 49/psy'50 zone.

The problem will be if the main equity market sees any cooling this summer/fall. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb. 

To be clear, I'm expecting to see at least $40 printed before Labor day. That isn't bold, considering this month's breakout, which was decisive.



The gold to silver ratio has fallen to 77.06, although that remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis. 

The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 28.76... which is on the high side. I would be surprised if we break a new hist' high >34s, as gold and bitcoin are both m/t bullish.


Gold was helped in May by a slightly weaker dollar. Any rate cuts (Sept' and/or Dec' look feasible) would certainly help pressure gold upward.


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