A fourth week of gains

With US/world capital markets continuing to remain broadly upset, the precious metals are increasingly catching a classic fear-bid. Gold and Silver climbed for a fourth consecutive week, with net weekly gains of 5.4% and 4.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace, before resuming powerfully higher.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

*since its the weekend... and considering the recent powerful gains, I wanted to also highlight the giant monthly cycles....

Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

It is notable that the above two charts are using a log' scale. Things do look less bullish on a linear/arithmetic scale. However, the past few weeks of price action do merit serious consideration that a major floor was actually achieved in Dec'2015.
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Best guess: mid term upside in Gold to around $1300 - where the monthly upper bollinger is lurking. What happens then... very difficult to say.

Breaking the downward trend from 2011

The last two days of gains have resulted in a provisional break of the downward trend that stretches back almost a full five years. Gold and Silver saw powerful net daily gains of 4.0% and 3.1% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a retrace, but the mid/long term trends are finally turning bullish.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

*I'll post the monthly charts tomorrow.
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Suffice to add, a powerfully bullish day for the precious metals.

Reasons for the ramp?

1. USD weakness
2. Fear-bid, as US/world capital markets remain broadly upset
3. Technical, as we have a clear multi-year break... leading to renewed interest.
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*I will strongly consider going long GLD on the next pull back... that might take 4-7 days to complete.

Next big target for Gold is the $1300 threshold.

Powerful net weekly gains

With the USD seeing very significant sustained weakness for the majority of the week, the precious metals continued to climb for a third consecutive week. Gold and Silver saw net weekly gains of a distinctly powerful 4.9% and 5.1% respectively.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

Clearly, very powerful gains... but across the last few years we've seen the same sort of sporadic multi-week up waves.. only to end in breaking a new multi-year low.

Gold bugs are not going to have real clarity for at least another few months, until we see at least a couple of higher highs.. AND higher lows... the broader outlook remains bearish.

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*clearly, with such powerful gains, the related mining stocks are seeing some clear upside breaks. For the moment though, whilst the broader market looks highly vulnerable to the sp'1600s this spring, I am not chasing the metals/miners higher.