Gold powering upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July changes of +$133.40 (5.7%) to $2473.00, and -$0.62 (2.1%) to $28.94 respectively.

Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

Gold: A new historic high of $2496.60, if settling in the $2473s. A ninth consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked upward, and is on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2194, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having already reached the 2400/2500 zone, 3K appears realistic before year end.
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Silver: a July high of $32.01, if cooling back to $28.94. Momentum is flat-lining on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.93, which was settled above. 

The second consecutive monthly settlement under psy' $30.00 isn't a great sign.

If silver can clear >$32.75, then soft target will be the $35s, last printed in Oct'2012. Any price action >36.00 would open the door to the 49/psy'50 zone.

However, the problem will be if the equity market sees any cooling this summer/fall. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields rebound.  

Certainly though, gold printing the $2496s to end the month... is a pretty bullish sign.
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 85.46... which is certainly on the high side. I hold to the view that silver will greatly outperform gold, if on a 5-10 year basis.

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Gold fairing better

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net June declines of -$6.20 (0.3%) to $2339.60, and -$0.88 (2.9%) to $29.56 respectively.

Gold, monthly

 

Silver, monthly

 

Summary

Gold: a June high of $2406, if cooling back to the $2339s. An eighth consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum is flat-lining on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2133, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having already reached the 2400/2500 zone, 3K appears realistic before year end.
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Silver: a June high of $31.67, if cooling back to $29.56. Momentum continued to tick upward, settling moderately positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.28, which was settled above. 

The monthly settlement under psy' $30.00 isn't a great sign. However it could be argued we've just seen a multi-week retrace of the wave from 21>32. 

Next resistance are the $35s, last printed in Oct'2012. Any price action >36.00 would open the door to the 49/psy'50 zone.

The problem will be if the main equity market sees any cooling this summer/fall. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb.
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The Gold - Silver ratio stands at 79.15, which is certainly still on the high side. I have to expect the 32s, but that could easily be at least 2-3 years away.
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The USD saw a net June gain of +92bps to DXY 105.54. All such dollar strength is an inherent downward pressure on ALL asset classes, not least gold and silver. It is the case though that the dollar and gold can sometimes climb and fall together.

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The Gold - Bitcoin ratio has cooled to 26.04.
Things would turn 'interesting' if >34, but there is no sign of that.

*As ever, ratios are to be treated with caution, as both assets can rise or fall together, whilst the ratio remains the same. 

**Ohh, and for 'physical' holdings, I would absolutely favour silver, which has much higher percentage gain potential.
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Silver powering upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net May gains of +$42.90 (1.9%) to $2345.80, and +$3.79 (14.2%) to $30.44 respectively.

Gold, monthly

 

Silver, monthly

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new historic high of $2454.20. A seventh consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked upward, and is on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2096, which was settled far above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having already reached the 2400/2500 zone, 3K appears realistic this year.
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Silver: printing a high of $32.75, the highest since Dec'2012, if cooling back to settle at $30.34. Momentum ticked upward, settling marginally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $24.80, which was settled above. 

The monthly settlement above $30.00 is VERY significant. Next resistance are the $35s, last printed in Oct'2012. Any price action >36.00 would open the door to the 49/psy'50 zone.

The problem will be if the main equity market sees any cooling this summer/fall. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb. 

To be clear, I'm expecting to see at least $40 printed before Labor day. That isn't bold, considering this month's breakout, which was decisive.

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The gold to silver ratio has fallen to 77.06, although that remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis. 
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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 28.76... which is on the high side. I would be surprised if we break a new hist' high >34s, as gold and bitcoin are both m/t bullish.

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Gold was helped in May by a slightly weaker dollar. Any rate cuts (Sept' and/or Dec' look feasible) would certainly help pressure gold upward.

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