Metals fall sharply across February

Whilst the equity market pushed to new highs, the precious metals declined for a fifth month. Silver fell 9.5%, whilst Gold declined 5.0%. There is no sign of a turn/floor, and both Gold and Silver look set for further significant declines in March/April


GLD, monthly'1 - bearish outlook

SLV, monthly'1 - bearish outlook

Summary

It has to be said, in retrospect, the declines for the metals really are surprisingly severe. After a few intra-month attempts at a rebound, the metals continue a very steady decline.

Both metals are close to taking out their lows from summer 2012.

On balance, I can not expect last years lows to hold. Significantly lower levels seem likely.

Targets..

SLV 24/23
GLD 140/135

For SLV, a move all the way back to the August 2010 'Bernanke breakout'  - in the high teens now looks feasible..if not 'likely'.

For the Gold/metal bugs, the bearish chart outlooks listed above are nothing less than heresy.

Yet..the trend IS unquestionably lower.

One serious problem the metals are facing - not least as was seen today, is the strength in the US Dollar, which is now testing the USD 82 level. A move to the 88s, or even higher, would put further severe downside pressure onto the metals.

Metals rebounding

The metals snapped lower in the morning - perhaps spooked by the looming Bernanke testimony, but the declines sharply reversed, and both Gold and Silver closed significantly higher. The metals remain in very broad down channels though.


SLV, 60min

SLV, daily

GLD, daily

Summary

Despite today's snap back higher, the precious metals remain in very broad down channels.

SLV needs to break back into the 30s..and GLD needs the 161s.

Those targets are still considerably higher than current levels, and it could be some weeks before we see those broken - if at all.
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What remains key is that the summer 2012 lows really aren't that far below. If that support fails to hold - at ANY time, there will very likely be a massive snap move lower, and one that would likely spell further weeks..if not many months of decline.

Metals fall across the week

It was a rough week for the precious metals market. The near term down trend is continuing, and with the US dollar climbing, the downward pressure intensified. There was a key break below the lower weekly channel/support for both Gold and Silver


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

There is no sign of any levelling/turn yet, in what is now a six month decline from the mid-Sept' 2012 highs.

What should especially concern those looking for a significant bounce this spring/summer, is the key break below the weekly lower channel. This is a major problem, and is even suggestive that perhaps this new wave lower is the start of something more severe.

The summer 2012 lows are indeed critical.

If those fail to hold, with a weekly/monthly close under.. then a FULL retracement to the original 'Bernanke @ Jacksone Hole breakout' from August 2010 look viable.

That would put SLV in the high teens..and GLD back in the 120s...it is a very provocative thought.