A bad month for the precious metals

With September concluding, the precious metals have seen a significant portion of the gains from July/August negated. Gold and Silver saw net monthly declines of -5.0% and -7.9% respectively. Near term price action looks weak, and price formation could simply be a large multi-month bear flag.


Gold, monthly, fib levels

Silver, monthly, fib levels

Summary

Suffice to say..despite the Fed continuing QE at $85bn, the precious metals are simply not benefiting.

The net monthly falls are very significant, and if October closes with declines of any degree, then the June lows look set to be broken..certainly by early spring 2014.

--
mid-term targets remain unchanged, with GLD in the 90s, and SLV in the low teens, perhaps 12/10.

A quiet week for the precious metals

After the drama of FOMC week, the precious metals saw very narrow price action. Across the week, Gold and Silver saw net weekly changes of +0.8% and -0.2% respectively. Weekly charts are offering a renewed wave higher, although the daily charts are offering a rather bearish H/S formation.


GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly

Summary

So...a rather quiet week for the precious metals. There were slight gains into the weekend, arguably due to a fear-trade, with a possible temporary US Govt' shutdown - although that still seems rather unlikely.

The daily and weekly charts are somewhat contradictory. Near term daily charts are offering a rather bearish large H/S formation, which would be offering significant downside, even beneath the June lows...this coming Oct/Nov.

Weekly charts are offering the possibility of another multi-week wave higher, and the big $1500 gold level would be a very obvious target (an equivalent Silver target would be around $26).

Regardless of the action in the coming few months, I'm resigned to much lower levels in 2014/15.
--
Mid-term targets remain unchanged, with GLD in the 90s, and SLV 12/10.

Metals rally into the close

Whilst equities saw renewed weakness in the late afternoon, the precious metals rallied into the close. After opening declines of around $13 for Gold, Gold and Silver closed with net gains of 0.1% and 0.5% respectively. Near term trend remains somewhat bearishly choppy.


GLD, daily

SLV, daily

Summary

More than anything, it remains very surprising that despite continued QE - at an annual rate of $1 trillion, the metals are failing to be consistently bid higher.

The FOMC hyper-jump in Gold of $50 is now fading from the minds of even the most ardent gold bugs, and the immediate trend looks somewhat weak.

There remains the chance of a further multi-week wave higher, to test the big $1500, but even if that is hit, the monthly charts will remain generally bearish until at least mid 2014.

--
mid-term targets remain the same, with GLD 90s, and SLV 12/10, no later than early 2015.