Wednesday 18 July 2012

Metals all primed to break

The metals have been largely flat for the last 10 weeks or so. Whilst price has remained flat, underlying momentum/trends have been resetting, and are getting close to an attempt to break upward.

Even with a break higher though, any move higher could quickly fail, and get stuck around the top bollinger band.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


From a MACD cycle perspective, the metals are due to break +cycle in about 3 or 4 weeks. We've not seen some good upside in the metals since the start of the year, so we're certainly 'over-due', but that is of course no guarantee.

The problem the metals still face is that the monthly cycles remain weak, and in a broad downtrend - as is also clear from the weekly cycle perspective.

Right now, I could only get bullish on Silver above 32/33 - and even then, I'd want a VERY tight stop on any new long positions added at such a level. For Gold, I'd only be bullish over $1650, and again..only with a super tight stop.

If the main equity market gets upset in August - as some believe, then the metals are going to find it VERY difficult to maintain current levels, even if there is concern over the 'dirty paper' that is the European currency.

As ever..physical metals remain the ultimate insurance against the money printing of the central banks. Any further declines should be seen as a bonus discount to all those not already aboard the silver/gold train.