Saturday 28 July 2012

Minor break higher for the metals

After trading largely sideways for two months, the metals are breaking to the upside. Is this just a short term tease to the Gold/Silver bugs..or is it the start of something major?

With rumours of QE3 in the coming week - or at least within the next 2-3 months, the metal bulls are looking for a major snap higher.

GLD, weekly

SLV, weekly


We have indeed seen a minor bullish break higher, but so far its still well within the broader weekly down cycle.

Only if GLD can break above 165 could I get bullish, and $31 for SLV.

We are some ways away from hitting those levels, so the metal bears still have a significant buffer zone for any longer term short positions.
Downside targets remain $1300 for Gold..and $22 for Silver.

The deflationary 'doomers' would be seeking Gold $1000 and Silver $17.50. That only seems viable if the economy suffers consistent weakness all the way into early 2013, and if the Bernanke refuses to do any major QE.

Considering the last few years of Fed intervention, I'd have to guess the Fed would step in if the SP'500 is in the low 1100s - which would equate to the $1300 level for Gold.