Friday 30 September 2016

Net monthly gains

After significant weakness in August, September saw the precious metals rebound. Gold and Silver saw net monthly gains of $5.70 (0.4%) to $1317.10, and $0.51 (2.7%) to $19.21. The mid term upward trend from the Dec' 2015 low remains intact.


Gold, monthly



Silver, monthly



Summary

*Gold ended the week on a moderately bearish note, certainly relative to Silver.
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Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is ticking lower, but for now... the important aspect is that the rising trend from the Dec'2015 low is still intact.

Gold is far more vulnerable to breaking rising trend than Silver.

As ever, the USD will be a key variable in helping determine the mid/long term direction of the metals.

My current outlook for the USD is offering downside to the DXY 92/91s before end year. If that is correct, it would bode bullish for the metals, along with most other commodities, and indeed, the broader equity market.
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Gold only turns decisively bearish on a move under $1200. For Silver, that is arguably <$16.