A mixed 2022

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net December gains of +$66.30 (3.8%) to $1826.20, and +$2.26 (10.4%) to $24.04 respectively. For the year, Gold and Silver saw net yearly changes of -$2.40 (0.1%) and +$0.69 (2.9%) respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: ending the year on a positive note, settling in the $1826s. Price momentum ticked higher for a second month, if remaining on the moderately low side. The December candle offers increased confidence of a short term floor from the November $1618s. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1792, which was settled above.

Silver: a fourth consecutive net monthly gain, printing $24.51, and settling at $24.04. The December candle leans s/t bullish. Momentum ticked higher for a fourth consecutive month, and is prone to turning positive in January. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.23, which silver settled decisively above. The silver bulls should be seeking a monthly settlement above $25.50. 

The problem... especially for silver, will be if the main market is broadly lower across Q1. A further downward pressure will be if the dollar resumes broadly upward. 
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The gold to silver ratio stands at 75.97, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold in an inflationary environment.

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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 9.08, the lowest since autumn 2020. It sure would be interesting to see parity in this pair!

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Considering the broadly stronger USD - a net 2022 gain of +768bps to DXY 103.27, Gold fared better in 2022 than it might at first seem. Both can rise together, especially in times of geo-political crisis.
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A strong November

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net November gains of +$119.20 (7.3%) to $1759.90, and +$2.66 (13.9%) to $21.78 respectively. Silver settled above the monthly 10MA, whilst gold appears poised to follow.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing the $1618s - the lowest since April 2020, if recovering to settle in the $1759s. Price momentum ticked upward, and offers a provisional cyclical floor/turn. I would note the monthly 10MA at psy' $1800, which was settled below, as the m/t trend is still bearish.

There is increasing background bullish chatter, but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until a decisive monthly settlement >psy' $2K. An eventual push >$2100 would offer grander target of the 2400/2500 zone. Clearly, a weaker dollar would help.
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Silver: climbing for a third consecutive month. Momentum ticked upward for a third month. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.26, which silver settled marginally above. The positive equity market and the weaker dollar certainly helped.
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The gold to silver ratio stands at 80.80. The recent high is notably far lower than March/April, as silver is outperforming gold.
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The gold to bitcoin ratio continues to narrow, standing at 9.71, the lowest since late 2020, as gold is outperforming Bitcoin.
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Gold falls for a seventh month

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net October changes of -$31.30 (1.9%) to $1640.70, and +$1.16 (6.5%) to $19.04 respectively. Gold is being pressured by the broadly strong dollar, whilst Silver is fairing better, if still m/t bearish.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: a seventh consecutive net monthly decline, printing $1621.10 - the lowest since April 2020, if recovering to settle in the $1640s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1803, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend is bearish. Gold is holding a decreasing amount of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine, and China/Taiwan geo-political concerns. 

There is increasing background bullish chatter, but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that will be very difficult until the dollar is sustainably cooling.

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Silver: printed a new multi-year low of $21.31, but cooled to settle at $19.12. Momentum ticked subtly back upward. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.33, which silver settled below for a sixth month. Things only turn interesting with a break AND hold above $22.00, but that looks difficult for the remainder of this year, with the m/t bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.

 

Gold and the King of FIAT land...

 

The USD remains on track for next target of the DXY 120s. If that occurs, its difficult not to see Gold cool to next support of the $1370s, levels last seen in June 2019. 
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Month six down

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September changes of -$54.20 (3.1%) to $1672.00, and +$1.16 (6.5%) to $19.04 respectively. Gold is being pressured by the stronger dollar, whilst Silver is fairing surprising well, if still m/t bearish.

Gold, monthly1b

 

 Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: a sixth consecutive net monthly decline, printing $1622.00 - the lowest since April 2020, if recovering to settle in the $1672s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1822, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend is bearish. Gold is holding a decreasing amount of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine, and China/Taiwan geo-political concerns. 

There is increasing background 'bullish chatter', but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that will be very difficult until the dollar is sustainably cooling.

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Silver: printed a new multi-year low of $17.40, but recovered to settle at $19.04. Momentum ticked subtly back upward. I would note the monthly 10MA at $21.75, which silver settled below for a sixth month. Things only turn interesting with a break AND hold above $22.00, but that looks difficult for the remainder of this year, with the m/t bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.

 

Gold and the King of FIAT land...

The USD remains on track for next target of the DXY 120s. If that occurs, its difficult not to see Gold cool to next support of the $1370s, levels last seen in June 2019.

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It currently only takes 11.59oz of Gold to purchase one Bitcoin.
Note the double top from the 34s.
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The Gold to Silver ratio currently stands at 87.82, which remains historically on the very high side. However, considering the m/t bearish equity market, gold could be expected to outperform silver into early 2023.
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Month five down

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August declines of -$55.60 (3.1%) to $1726.20, and -$2.32 (11.5%) to $17.88 respectively. Gold is seeing its inherent 'fear bid' erode, whilst Silver is fairing far worse due to the m/t bearish equity market.

Gold, monthly1b

 

 Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing $1824.60, but swinging lower to settle in the $1726s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1833, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend is bearish. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine, and China/Taiwan geo-political concerns. 

There remains background 'bullish chatter', but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $20.87, but swinging lower to settle at $17.88. Momentum is increasingly negative, at levels last seen in early 2014. I would note the monthly 10MA at $22.13, which silver settled below for a fifth month. Things only turn interesting with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult for the rest of this year, with the m/t bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.

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The dollar isn't helping

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July declines of -$25.50 (1.4%) to $1781.80, and -$0.15 (0.8%) to $20.20 respectively. Gold is maintaining some degree of 'fear bid' via geo-political tensions, whilst Silver is fairing better due to the s/t bullish equity market.

Gold, monthly1b

 

 Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing $1678.40, but recovering to settle in the $1761s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1838, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend is bearish. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine, and China/Taiwan geo-political concerns. 

There remains background 'bullish chatter', but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $18.01, but recovering to settle at $20.20. Momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $22.73, which silver settled below for a fourth month. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things only turn interesting with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult for the rest of this year, with the m/t bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.
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Dollar strength since early 2021 isn't helping gold, or silver.

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The gold-silver ratio stands at 88.22, and whilst its historically high, its far below the March 2020 spike, when silver was printing the $11s. 

Gold can be expected to perform better based on geo-political tensions, whilst silver will be more impacted by the m/t bearish equity market. I would expect the ratio to climb back >100 before year end.
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A mid term bearish mess

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net June declines of -$41.10 (2.2%) to $1807.30, and -$1.34 (6.2%) to $21.35 respectively. Gold is maintaining some degree of 'fear bid' via geo-political tensions, whilst Silver is more adversely impacted by the m/t bearish equity market.

Gold, monthly

 

Silver, monthly

 

Summary

Gold: printing $1882.50, but cooling back to settle in the $1807s. Price momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1836, which was again settled below, as the m/t trend IS bearish. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine geo-political concerns. 

There remains background 'bullish chatter', but I will struggle to take gold seriously again until it breaks a new historic high >$2100. An eventual push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $22.57, but spiraling back lower to settle at $20.35, the lowest since July 2020. Momentum is increasingly negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $22.92, which silver settled below. for a third month. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn only turn interesting again, with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult for another few months, with the bearish equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.
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Whilst gold fell for a third month, its holding up far better than Bitcoin, as the gold>bitcoin ratio has dropped from the 34s (a notable double top) to just 10. 

The gold>silver ratio stands at 88.80, the highest since spring 2020, as gold is holding up better than silver.

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Precious metals continue to cool

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net May declines of -$63.30 (3.3%) to $1848.40, and -$1.40 (6.0%) to $21.69 respectively. Gold is maintaining some degree of 'fear bid' via geo-political tensions, whilst Silver is more adversely impacted by the m/t broken equity market.

Gold, monthly

 

Silver, monthly

 

Summary

Gold: printing $1785, but recovering to settle in the $1848s. Price momentum has stalled just under the key zero threshold. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1837, which was marginally settled below. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine geo-political concerns. 

Next target is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. A push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $20.42, but recovering to settle at $21.69. Momentum remains negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.28, which silver settled decisvely below. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult with the broken equity market, and the broadly strong dollar.

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A difficult April

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net April declines of -$42.30 (2.2%) to $1911.70, and -$2.05 (8.1%) to $23.08 respectively. Gold is maintaining some degree of 'fear bid' via geo-political tensions, whilst Silver is more impacted by the bearish equity market.

Gold, monthly

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing $2003, but swinging lower to settle in the $1911s. Price momentum is stalling just under the key zero threshold. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1834, which was again settled above. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine geo-political concerns. 

Next target is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. A push >2100 would offer a grander target of the 2400/2500 zone, but that won't be easy with a broadly strong dollar.

Silver: printing $26.50, but cooling back to settle at $23.08. Momentum ticked back downward. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.67, which silver settled below. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above $25.50, but that looks difficult with the broken equity market, and the broadly strong dollar. 

The one solace for silver bulls is that old (seven year) resistance of the $21s, is still holding as new core support.

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It sure isn't the only variable, but the stronger dollar is keeping a lid on Gold.

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The Gold to Silver ratio stands at 82.81. Gold is clearly benefiting more from geo-political tensions, with Silver more prone to getting dragged lower by the main market.

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It takes 20.11oz of Gold to purchase one Bitcoin. This remains... beyond crazy, but the millennial 'hot money' has little interest in gold, and is instead obsessed with crypto.

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Gold and Silver battling upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net March gains of +$53.30 (2.8%) to $1954.00, and +$0.77 (3.1%) to $25.13 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: powered upward in March, largely on Russia/Ukraine, printing the $2078s, and settling in the $1954s. Price momentum is ticking upward, set to turn positive in early April. The March candle is spiky from around the Aug'2020 historic high. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1820, which was again settled above. Gold is holding some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine geo-political concerns. 

Next target is the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. A push >2100 appears probable, with a  grander target of the 2400/2500 zone.

Silver: printing $27.50, but cooling back to settle at $25.13. Momentum ticked upward, and will be prone to turning positive in May. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.98, which silver settled above. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above $25.50. The one solace for silver bulls is that old (seven year) resistance of the $21s, is holding as new core support.

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Gold catching a fear bid

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net February gains of +$104.30 (5.8%) to $1900.70, and +$1.97 (8.8%) to $24.37 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b 

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: rebounded strongly in February, printing the $1976s, and settling around psy' $1900. Price momentum is ticking upward, set to turn positive within 1-2 months. The February candle is spiky from the upper bollinger. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1815, which was decisively settled above. Gold is catching some degree of 'fear bid' on Russia/Ukraine geo-political concerns. 

Next (obvious) target is giant psy' 2K, and then the Aug'2020 historic high of the $2089s. A spike >2100 appears a threat within March. Grander target is the 2400/2500 zone.

Silver: printing $25.67, but cooling back to settle at $24.37. Momentum has started to tick back upward, if remaining on the moderately low side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $24.27, which silver settled above. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above $25.50. The one solace for silver bulls is that old (seven year) resistance of the $21s, is holding as new core support.

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Weak start to 2022

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net January declines of -$32.20 (1.8%) to $1796.40, and -$0.96 (4.1%) to $22.39 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: began the year on a weak note, settling in the $1796s. Price momentum is flat lining on the moderately low side. The January candle offers little to the bulls. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1802. For confidence, gold bugs need to see a decisive monthly settlement >psy' $1900, which looks possible late Feb'/March... if only on geo-political grounds.

Silver: printing $24.75, but cooling back to settle at $22.39. The January candle offers little to the bulls. Momentum ticked lower for a eighth consecutive month, and is on the moderately low side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $24.42, which silver settled below. Price action has been a broad chop fest since August 2020. Things turn decisive for the silver bulls, with a break AND hold above $25.50. The one solace for silver bulls is that old (seven year) resistance of the $21s, is holding as new core support.

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