Cooling back

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net November declines of -$68.30 (2.5%) to $2681.00, and -$1.69 (5.1%) to $31.11 respectively.

Gold, monthly20

Silver, monthly20

Summary

Gold: printing the $2541s, if recovering to settle in the $2681s.. the largest net monthly decline since Sept'2023. Price momentum ticked back downward, but remains on the very high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2437, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Lower bond yields helped, but its arguable that the stronger dollar was a major downward pressure.
The removal of 'election uncertainty' was another downward pressure.
A hit of giant psy' 3K looks out of range before year end.
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Silver: printing $29.75, it recovering to settle at $31.11. The biggest net monthly decline since Dec'2023. Momentum ticked back downward, if remaining on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $28.79, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

The problem will be if the equity market sees any cooling into year end. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields increase.
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Relative to 2011 - when Gold $1923 and Silver $49s, gold is still outperforming silver. Even the bold will continue to favour gold, which would better capture a geo-political 'fear bid'. 
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 86.18, and remains historically high. I'd accept that on a very long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution. Whilst October's ratio leaned a little in favour to silver, both commodities were lower for the month. Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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With Bitcoin recently printing a new historic high of $99772, the gold-Bitcoin ratio has broken a new hist' high, currently 36.14. Its a curious thought to realise that it takes around 36x 1oz gold coins to purchase a digital crypto coin, the latter of which has an intrinsic value of $0.00
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The USD printed the DXY 108s in November, and was certainly one reason gold was net lower for November.
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Gold leading Silver

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net October gains of +$89.90 (3.4%) to $2749.30, and +$1.34 (4.2%) to $32.80 respectively.

Gold, monthly20

 

Silver, monthly20

 

Summary

Gold: A new historic high of $2801.80, if cooling back to settle in the $2749s. The seventh net monthly gain of eight. Price momentum ticked upward, and is on the very high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2375, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Considering the October increase in bond yields and the stronger dollar, gold performed even better than it might seem. A hit of giant psy' 3K remains on track before year end.
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Silver: an October high of $35.07, but cooling back to $32.80. The sixth monthly gain of eight. Momentum ticked upward, and remains on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $28.00, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

The problem will be if the equity market sees any cooling into year end. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields increase.
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Especially relative to 2011 - when Gold $1923 and Silver $49s, gold is still leading silver. Even the bold will continue to favour gold, which would better capture a geo-political 'fear bid'. 
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 83.83, and remains historically high. I'd accept that on a very long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution. Whilst October's ratio leaned a little in favour to silver, both commodities were powerfully higher for the month. Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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Gold pushing toward $3K

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net September gains of +$131.80 (5.2%) to $2659.40, and +$2.32 (7.9%) to $31.46 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: A new historic high of $2708.70, if cooling back to settle in the $2659s. The sixth net monthly gain of seven. Price momentum ticked upward, and is on the very high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2308, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish. A hit of giant psy' 3K remains on track before year end.
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Silver: a September high of $33.02, but cooling back to $31.46. The fifth monthly gain of seven. Momentum ticked back upward, and remains on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $27.12, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

The problem will be if the equity market sees any cooling into year end. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields rebound.  

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The gold-bitcoin ratio stands at 23.91, as gold slightly outperformed bitcoin in September.
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 84.54... and remains historically high. I'd accept that on a very long term basis (5+ years) silver could be expected to outperform gold.

As ever, ratio charts should be especially treated with caution. Whilst September's ratio leaned a little in favour to silver, both commodities were powerfully higher for the month. Price action is far more important than any ratio.
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Gold remains strong

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net August gains of +$54.60 (2.2%) to $2527.60, and +$0.20 (0.7%) to $29.14 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: A new historic high of $2570.40, if cooling back to settle in the $2527s. A tenth consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked upward, and is on the very high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2247, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having already reached the 2400/2500 resistance zone, 3K appears realistic before year end.
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Silver: an August low of $26.50, but recovering to $29.14. Momentum ticked a little lower, if still on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $26.55, which was settled above. 

The third consecutive monthly settlement under psy' $30.00 isn't a great sign for Sept-Oct'. 

The problem will be if the equity market sees any cooling this fall. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields rebound.  

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The gold-silver ratio stands at 86.73, which is on the high side. I hold to the view that silver will greatly outperform gold, if on a 5-10 year basis.
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The gold-bitcoin ratio fell to 23.36.
As ever, ratios are to be treated with caution.

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Gold powering upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net July changes of +$133.40 (5.7%) to $2473.00, and -$0.62 (2.1%) to $28.94 respectively.

Gold, monthly

Silver, monthly

Summary

Gold: A new historic high of $2496.60, if settling in the $2473s. A ninth consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked upward, and is on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2194, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having already reached the 2400/2500 zone, 3K appears realistic before year end.
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Silver: a July high of $32.01, if cooling back to $28.94. Momentum is flat-lining on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.93, which was settled above. 

The second consecutive monthly settlement under psy' $30.00 isn't a great sign.

If silver can clear >$32.75, then soft target will be the $35s, last printed in Oct'2012. Any price action >36.00 would open the door to the 49/psy'50 zone.

However, the problem will be if the equity market sees any cooling this summer/fall. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields rebound.  

Certainly though, gold printing the $2496s to end the month... is a pretty bullish sign.
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The gold-silver ratio stands at 85.46... which is certainly on the high side. I hold to the view that silver will greatly outperform gold, if on a 5-10 year basis.

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Gold fairing better

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net June declines of -$6.20 (0.3%) to $2339.60, and -$0.88 (2.9%) to $29.56 respectively.

Gold, monthly

 

Silver, monthly

 

Summary

Gold: a June high of $2406, if cooling back to the $2339s. An eighth consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum is flat-lining on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2133, which was settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having already reached the 2400/2500 zone, 3K appears realistic before year end.
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Silver: a June high of $31.67, if cooling back to $29.56. Momentum continued to tick upward, settling moderately positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $25.28, which was settled above. 

The monthly settlement under psy' $30.00 isn't a great sign. However it could be argued we've just seen a multi-week retrace of the wave from 21>32. 

Next resistance are the $35s, last printed in Oct'2012. Any price action >36.00 would open the door to the 49/psy'50 zone.

The problem will be if the main equity market sees any cooling this summer/fall. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb.
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The Gold - Silver ratio stands at 79.15, which is certainly still on the high side. I have to expect the 32s, but that could easily be at least 2-3 years away.
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The USD saw a net June gain of +92bps to DXY 105.54. All such dollar strength is an inherent downward pressure on ALL asset classes, not least gold and silver. It is the case though that the dollar and gold can sometimes climb and fall together.

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The Gold - Bitcoin ratio has cooled to 26.04.
Things would turn 'interesting' if >34, but there is no sign of that.

*As ever, ratios are to be treated with caution, as both assets can rise or fall together, whilst the ratio remains the same. 

**Ohh, and for 'physical' holdings, I would absolutely favour silver, which has much higher percentage gain potential.
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Silver powering upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net May gains of +$42.90 (1.9%) to $2345.80, and +$3.79 (14.2%) to $30.44 respectively.

Gold, monthly

 

Silver, monthly

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new historic high of $2454.20. A seventh consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked upward, and is on the high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2096, which was settled far above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having already reached the 2400/2500 zone, 3K appears realistic this year.
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Silver: printing a high of $32.75, the highest since Dec'2012, if cooling back to settle at $30.34. Momentum ticked upward, settling marginally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $24.80, which was settled above. 

The monthly settlement above $30.00 is VERY significant. Next resistance are the $35s, last printed in Oct'2012. Any price action >36.00 would open the door to the 49/psy'50 zone.

The problem will be if the main equity market sees any cooling this summer/fall. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb. 

To be clear, I'm expecting to see at least $40 printed before Labor day. That isn't bold, considering this month's breakout, which was decisive.

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The gold to silver ratio has fallen to 77.06, although that remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis. 
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The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 28.76... which is on the high side. I would be surprised if we break a new hist' high >34s, as gold and bitcoin are both m/t bullish.

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Gold was helped in May by a slightly weaker dollar. Any rate cuts (Sept' and/or Dec' look feasible) would certainly help pressure gold upward.

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Net bullish April

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net April gains of +$64.50 (2.9%) to $2302.90, and +$1.74 (7.0%) to $26.65 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing a new historic high of $2448.80. A sixth consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked upward, and is on the moderately high side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2062, which was settled decisively above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having already reached the 2400/2500 zone, 3K appears due at some point this year.
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Silver: printing a high of $29.91, if cooling back to settle at $26.65. Momentum ticked upward, settling marginally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $24.26, which was settled above. 

The monthly close above $26.00 is rather significant. The problem will be if the main equity market sees any further cooling. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields continue to climb. The price action of April 30th was a good example of that!

More broadly, silver bulls should remain seeking a decisive monthly close >$30.00, as looks realistic in May. Any talk of new historic highs >$50.00 has to be seen as 'crazy talk', until a settlement >$30.00. 

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The gold to silver ratio stands at 86.40, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis.  

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Gold/Silver powering upward

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw very powerful net March gains of +$183.70 (8.9%) to $2238.40, and +$2.03 (8.9%) to $24.92 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 Silver, monthly1b

Summary

Gold: printing a new historic high of $2246.80. A fifth consecutive monthly close above psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked back upward, and is on the moderately positive side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $2025, which was settled decisively above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

I see the door wide open to next resistance of the 2400/2500 zone, which is an area a fair few others are also seeking. I could understand some who are wondering if 3K is realistic this year.
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Silver: printing a high of $25.98, if cooling back to settle at $24.92. Momentum ticked back upward, turning fractionally positive. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.89, which silver settled above. 

The s/t bulls should continue to seek a break AND hold above $26.00. The problem will be if the main market sees any kind of cooling/retrace. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb.

More broadly, silver bulls should remain seeking a decisive monthly close >$30.00. That doesn't look viable any earlier than May. Any talk of new historic highs >$50.00 has to be seen as 'crazy talk', until a settlement >$30.00. 

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The gold to silver ratio stands at 89.84, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis.  

*It is notable that Gold and Silver both saw net March gains of 8.9%. 
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As at March 29th, the gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 31.11, the highest since Nov'2021, as crypto has massively outperformed gold since the equity market floored in Oct'2022.

It could be argued, equity bears should be seeking the ratio to peak in the 34s, as one indirect sign the market is at/near a m/t top. As ever though, ratios are to be treated with a high degree of caution. The gold/bitcoin ratio could continue to increase, but it sure doesn't have to mean gold isn't also climbing.
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Gold's net March gain of 8.9% is somewhat more impressive, considering the USD was net higher... if only by around +0.5%. It is indeed possible for Gold (and Silver) to climb, with the strengthening dollar.  Were the USD to weaken, along with lower bond yields, Gold/Silver could be expected to accelerate upwards.
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Gold holding $2K

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw net February declines of -$12.70 (0.6%) to $2054.70, and -$0.28 (1.2%) to $22.89 respectively.

Gold, monthly1b

 

Silver, monthly1b

 

Summary

Gold: printing a low of $1996.40, but recovering to settle at $2054. A fourth consecutive monthly close above giant psy' $2K. Price momentum ticked a little lower, if still on the moderately positive side. I would note the monthly 10MA at $1999, which was settled decisively above, as the m/t trend is bullish.

Having printed $2152 in December, I see the door still open to next resistance of the 2400/2500 zone, which is an area a fair few others are also seeking.
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Silver: printing a low of $21.98, if recovering to settle at $22.89. The February candle leans net bearish into March. Momentum ticked lower, turning fractionally negative. I would note the monthly 10MA at $23.76, which silver settled beneath. 

The s/t bulls should be seeking a monthly settlement above $26.00. The problem will be if the main market sees any kind of cooling/retrace. Further downward pressures would be if the dollar strengthens, or if bond yields climb.

More broadly, silver bulls should remain seeking a decisive monthly close >$30.00. That doesn't look viable any earlier than June. Any talk of new historic highs >$50.00 has to be seen as 'crazy talk', until a settlement >$30.00. 

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The gold to silver ratio stands at 89.78, which remains historically high. A valid natural target would be the 32s, as silver could be expected to outperform gold on a multi-year basis.  

 

The gold to bitcoin ratio stands at 29.84, the highest since Dec'2021, as crypto has massively outperformed gold since the equity market floored in Oct'2022.

It could be argued, equity bears should be seeking the ratio to peak in the 34s, as one indirect sign the market is at/near a m/t top. As ever though, ratios are to be treated with a high degree of caution. The gold/bitcoin ratio could continue to increase, but it sure doesn't have to mean gold isn't also climbing. 

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